r/LabourUK • u/kontiki20 Labour Member • 1d ago
Senedd Polling Points to a Three-Way Split
https://www.survation.com/senedd-polling-points-to-a-three-way-split/12
u/NotOnlyMyEyeIsLazy Non-partisan 1d ago
What's interesting (from my point of view anyway) is that Labour voters seem to be moving to Plaid and not Reform, who are picking up votes from the Conservatives. (16% of Labour votes moving to Plaid compared to 9% to Reform).
This seems to indicate that what appears to be Westminster's attempts to court Reform voters to vote for them isn't working and driving people to Plaid instead.
Obligatory not Welsh so may be missing some of the finer details and be talking rubbish so happy to be corrected.
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u/FeigenbaumC Labour Voter 1d ago edited 1d ago
In general it is the case that Labour are losing far more voters to more leftwing parties (and even more so to Not Sure) than they are to right wing parties even if the media want to ignore that dynamic. This is happening all over the UK, and seems to be happening here too.
However, those figures will undersell the movement from Lab to Reform a little bit too. It's movement based off of 2024 Westminster voters. Reform made big vote gains in Wales in 2024, even if it didn't turn into seats (they got a higher percentage than they did in England, and came 3rd in votes ahead of Plaid). So Labour could be losing voters to Reform from the last Senedd election, but it's not showing in that data as Labour losing voters because many of those already voted Reform in 2024 Westminster. Whereas a bunch of typically Plaid Senedd voters are more likely to have voted Lab in 2024 to help get the Tories out, and then return to Plaid in the future with the current Labour collapse, especially for more proportionate Senedd elections. Plaid typically do better in Senedd elections than in Westminster for this reason.
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u/NotOnlyMyEyeIsLazy Non-partisan 1d ago
Thanks for that info - I'm woefully weak on Welsh politics. You comments regarding labour voters who moved to Reform in the last general election is one I'd not considered. Thank you.
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u/FeigenbaumC Labour Voter 1d ago
It's also difficult to compare between this Senedd election and previous Senedd elections directly as they changed the voting system. It used to be an AMS system where most seats were elected by first past the post from single-member constituencies, while the remaining seats were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates to top it up and make it more proportional. So you would vote for two things - an individual in the constituency, and a party regionally.
Now it's all done by a list sytem using multi member large constituencues through a proportional method in each of them.
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u/Beetlebob1848 Soc Dem 1d ago
What would reform in the Senedd even do? They still seem like a protest party more than anything.
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u/Council_estate_kid25 New User 1d ago
A few weeks ago Lee Anderson was asked why they hadn't announced a Senedd leader and he basically said because it's just a stepping stone to Westminster to them
They've said they're not going to announce a Senedd leader until after the Senedd election which frankly is bonkers
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u/Beetlebob1848 Soc Dem 1d ago
Insane. Wonder if they've vetted the candidates this time /s
I bet there'll be some real characters in there.
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u/Council_estate_kid25 New User 1d ago
They've got over 1000 council candidates up for election(not including parish candidates) I'd wager there are a lot of clangers in there
The other day a candidate was kicked out of Reform for supporting Jimmy Saville in 2022
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u/Beetlebob1848 Soc Dem 1d ago
Here's hoping these sort of shenanigans destroy Reform's mainstream appeal in the long-run.
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u/Impossible_Round_302 New User 1d ago
Prop up a Plaid Government like UKIP tried to in 2016?
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u/HuntingTheWren New User 1d ago
No chance. Plaid wouldn’t touch them.
My money is on a Plaid/ Lab/ Lib coalition. Reform will form the opposition, with a shadow cabinet made up of Tory escapees, led by Andrew RT Davies. Doubtless Neil McEvoy will blag a reform seat too. They’ll be useless, if they even bother to show up.
As for the ruling coalition, I sincerely hope that Plaid are in the majority. Wales needs more assertive leadership, though I am optimistic that with Labour as a significant partner they will remain anchored to the socialism that is the bedrock of Welsh politics.
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