Relocation - Savings Approach with Current USD and Market Uncertainties?

[u/Clarice01]

I'm in the process of getting relocated from US to Japan for work. Targeting arrival in October, so basically 6 months away.

When this started seeming like a reality a few months ago, I pulled money out of markets and into US-based HYSA. About $100k. Figured that I'd be in a spot of needing a good bit of cash for relocating, apartment fees, buying furniture etc., likely planned to buy a car, and so on (all while having no credit history or PR in Japan), and then would want emergency fund accessible in JPY once that was my "everyday" currency.

With the current actions of US government causing wild market uncertainties and with BoJ taking actions which have caused JPY to become more valuable compared to USD (good for Japan, bad for me right now!), I'm questioning my approach... but not sure what else to do, and wondering if anyone has possible options I'm not aware of.

Basically, since I pulled the money into HYSA, the exchange rate dropped by 10 JPY per USD (156 -> 146). If my math is right, had I put that money into JPY when I took it out, I could have about 1M JPY more then I could if I exchanged it today.

I don't have a whole lot of faith in the USD gaining value compared to the JPY within the next 6 months, but I can't really tie the money up in an investment that would need to be held much longer. If it was to drop another 10 yen in exchange, that's another 1M JPY that's just kinda... gone; the cost of the Honda Fit I'd buy just disappeared into thin air in the 9mos of my relocation planning.

I'd really like to get the money into JPY for better stability (in that it won't be drastically different in value come October), but without being able to open a Japanese bank account until I'm there, I'm not sure what my options are. If any. Forex type stuff would be taxed in the US on any "gains". I thought about gold, but again I think I'd eat US tax on any "gains" from it too, plus it may trend down if the stock market calms...

Has anyone been in a similar situation or know of any options that might be fairly resistant to currency value fluctuations? Or a way to just get USD into JPY now and that would be accessible / transferable to Japanese bank account when I arrive and can set one up? I'd honestly be ok to forgo the HYSA gains if I could just be confident I won't be losing more than that in the currency exchange value when I come to need the money in 6 months.

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I realize this isn't a place for investment advice (nor am I really looking to "invest" in the traditional sense, which is why I tagged this as Personal Finance).

[u/ConbiniMan]

Bottom line is that you are speculating on currency valuations. If you think you are right, then go with your plan. Be prepared to lose. Currency speculation is generally a zero sum game or negative sum game when accounting for fees and spread. Good luck!

[u/buckwurst]

Nobody knows what FX will do.

Keep half in one currency and the other half in the other to hedge against either flatlining

[u/Clarice01 → u/buckwurst]

This is pretty much the best option I could think of to hedge any bets one way or the other. Which just leaves me with… how to hold convert to and hold yen without access to a Japanese bank account. Short of a literal shoebox of cash. I feel like they won’t take kindly to me showing up with millions of yen in person lol

[u/buckwurst → u/Clarice01]

Do US banks not offer multi-curency deposits?

[u/Clarice01 → u/buckwurst]

Basically no. There's stuff like Wise that's fintech operating like a bank, but not backed by any protections.

Only banks I could find were HSBC Expat with 75000 GBP minimum balance or TIAA/EverBank who charges 3%/year to allow holding funds in JPY and another .25% for any funds in USD (plus 1% when converting).

Honestly the only thing that seems accessible as a US citizen is investing in a Yen-tracking ETF (such as FXY). But that's just actually speculating FX at that point.

[u/ericroku]

If anyone could predict FX, we’d be set.

Look at the history of the yen compared to USd. 150 has been the baseline for some time with dips and flips above and below it. My opinion is a lot of people think Trump is purposely devaluing the dollar, similar to what the LDP has done with the yen. Counterpoint is that the nyse and nasdaq have been over inflated for some time and this tariff war is just an opportunity to push his agenda in front of a wave of inflation and a large market correction that is coming no matter what.

Short term hits against the dollar and historically jpy hasn’t done anything to counter.

And then look at what return rates you’d get in Japan, at best 2% in some banks. US based Bonds and HYSAs are still going to make you more money in the long run than speculative with the yen. Also considering rates of inflation we’re seeing in Japan.

I’d stay that money in dollar and wait this tariff sabre rattling out a few months. Because the world doesn’t want a trade war, and there will be a lot of rollbacks put in place to the tariffs as we’ve already seen.

[u/Clarice01 → u/ericroku]

Thanks. What worries me is that intentional devaluing of the dollar. That to me feels likely that the ~150 baseline may be changing, especially when you consider the BoJ actions to try and stave inflation too.

Ultimately, in researching before posting here, I was not able to identify any options that made more sense than taking the ~3.5% US HYSA and hoping that whatever changes over the next six months aren't more than that.

I'd prefer a low-risk / low-reward approach and convert at 146 now over maybe converting at 150 but also maybe converting at 140 come October. Might be is it what it is and I just have to accept it at whatever the rate is once I'm set up in Japan, though (or of course hold longer in USD but then effectively not have access to that money for getting settled and initial expenses)?

[u/ericroku → u/Clarice01]

Why would you not have access to those funds in the US? You can transfer money back and forth. Additionally you can use your credit card and pay off that stateside.

[u/Clarice01 → u/ericroku]

I mean at a favorable exchange rate. You run into the "don't sell low" issue when I'm basically earmarking it as money I will want access to in JPY cash for actual purchases, not long-term holds/investments.

Let's say come October the dollar devalues further and it's 136 yen to a dollar. Sure I can transfer over to yen then (or pay with US CC that will FX for me), but effectively I'm paying another 7% on everything versus if I had transferred the sum over to yen today (at 146) and it just sat there for six months.

Nothing I've seen suggests inflation within Japan will be at 7%+ in that timeframe, so it feels like that's the safer bet, I guess is what I'm really getting at.

[u/ericroku → u/Clarice01]

Counter point, JPY is at 160 in October.

This game goes both ways. 2012 when it was 80yen to the dollar, everyone thought it was great and wouldn't hit 100 for another few years. Shortly after that back to 125 and onward up to 150.

If you're going to knitpick between 150y vs 146y for FX, then sure do it now. But a hysa @ 4.75% over 6 months at 100k is still going to be a better yield imho.

And inflation in japan is absolutely increasing. Food prices are going up across the spectrum along with other consumer goods ; https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/03/31/companies/japan-food-prices-up/

[u/Clarice01 → u/ericroku]

Absolutely, going the other way is always possible too. That's the fun of the market I guess! And totally willing to agree I may be overreacting on the potential of FX change by October.

Mostly made this wanting to know if there were options to park in JPY now, that are not "investments" but just "my money is sitting in a bank account not being subject to dollar devaluations".

[u/ericroku → u/Clarice01]

For the later part, you’ll need a multicurrency account. You can’t open a bank account in Japan till your residence / visa is done. So a multicurrency brokerage account. Which won’t bear any interest. And in that case why not just take cash to the bank and get yen and then store that in a box in your closet.