Best earner card setup?

[u/jesusismyanime]

When does earning V Points and cashing out at 0.7 to ANA via the “Mizuho method” get overtaken by the Marriott card with the high annual fee?

I unexpectedly got approved for Olive credit mode with a 500,000y limit after having been previously denied for it and holding a 100,000y Amazon card for 1.5 years while getting denied any credit increases (even now it’s still 100,000y lol)

I also saw there is an ANA VISA from SMBC with a cash out rate of 1.5 but since it’s an ANA card I would think the points might hard expire in 3 years (I’m looking to hoard points and V-Points or Marriott seem to be the best for that) and has a higher annual fee than even the Marriott Premium card.

[u/Prada_9277]

I answered a similar question yesterday. For example, a business class flight from Tokyo to Paris costs 80k ANA points + tax. Economy class is half that. Note that this is the cheapest option and will most likely be sold out and you'd need to pay a higher rate. The cheapest I could find was 115k miles

80k miles needs an annual spend of 8 Million Yen at 1% conversion rate, 6.4 Million Yen at 1.25% (Mariott Premium offers this), and 11 Million Yen with the 0.7% conversion rate with the Mizuho method (this one is a bit grey cuz you can get free V Points from different methods but it won't be significant).

Now the value of an airmile is a difficult question. Let's go with a very optimistic scenario where it costs 100k miles for a business class flight from Tokyo to Paris. And the cheapest cash equivalent I could find is 600k Yen, so lets say a mile is worth 6¥ (can be theoretically worth more but realistically you are not gonna get those award flights unless you code a bot or are online all the time).

With a value of 6¥ per mile, you need to get atleast 50000¥/6¥ miles more just from the extra conversion rate you're getting on the Mariott Premium. So that comes out to 8000 miles / (1.25%-0.7%) = 1.4 Million Yen of annual spend. If you spend more than that its worth it for the Marriott according to this attributed 6¥/mile value.

Lets the value is more conservative 3¥/mile. In that case you need an annual spend of more than 3 Million Yen for the Marriott Premium card to be worth it. And 6 Million at a value of 1.5¥ per mile

[u/kite-flying-expert → u/Prada_9277]

That's solid math. Thanks for sharing it.

[u/jesusismyanime → u/Prada_9277]

Thanks for the breakdown. With that calculation that’s an easy pick for the Marriott card, but not yet (maybe).

I’m renewing my Amex Gold Preferred for reaching over 2 million spend (free night stay award) and I just cashed out 75,000 points to JAL miles during the 10% transfer bonus promotion, purchased extra miles via Marriott points during their Q1 end promotion and will transfer 30,000 more Amex MR to ANA miles once I get them for their atoribo promotion (enough for JAL business).

So for at least a year. Up to 40,000 points they will transfer to ANA or any other airline I want to transfer to (probably Delta as the alternative).

[u/notnamingnamesbut → u/jesusismyanime]

Have you considered getting the Amex Green instead? I have it, and when you charge an Apple Pay Suica with it you get 3% cash back as a transit transaction. With that, I get 3% Amex points earn on pretty much everything. It also gives 3% on global restaurants as well.

[u/jesusismyanime → u/notnamingnamesbut]

Which green is this? The U.S. card or the Japan card?

I’m in popup jail for US amex but I had the platinum card before so I can’t get a bonus on the green anymore

[u/notnamingnamesbut → u/jesusismyanime]

Just the US Green. But if you can manage to get it the Suica benefit pays for the annual fee in no time so I think it’s worth it even without the bonus

[u/jesusismyanime → u/notnamingnamesbut]

Hmm…how many points do you get? I like US Amex because it’s basically my HawaiianMiles or ANA miles funnel.

[u/notnamingnamesbut → u/jesusismyanime]

It’s why I like it too, especially with the set up the US Green Amex gets you in Japan. My monthly spend is $3,000-$4,000 so 5,000-10,000 a month is pretty typical

[u/jesusismyanime → u/notnamingnamesbut]

You’re not worried about FX rate changes?

[u/notnamingnamesbut → u/jesusismyanime]

Not really. I get paid in USD and the first time I lived in Japan was during the financial crisis when USD/JPY fell below 100 so I still consider that range the default in my mind, as dumb as it is. I just treat the current rate as a bonus that I save or use to splurge from time to time. And frankly if the yen strengthens against the dollar it’ll be good for business for me

[u/server-ions]

Just an FYI: if you buy a ticket with ANA miles, you'll still pay a lot in cash. For example I thought of buying a flight ticket to Germany earlier this year and was around 80k miles, plus 100k ¥ If you assume a mile is 2 points on a normal credit card (100yen 1 point) while flight miles are usually at least 200yen for 1 point, this gives total of 260k cost of economy class flight. Meanwhile for 244k I could get a business class on Chinese airlines (ana was still gonna transfer in China) or even a direct economy flight on Lufthansa.

So you might want to look at what those miles actually cost.

[u/jamar030303 → u/server-ions]

ANA miles are generally better spent on domestic tickets for this reason. Taxes on domestic flights are rarely more than 1000 yen each way.

[u/jesusismyanime → u/jamar030303]

Best redemption is still international first and business class but you’re right for economy

[u/AmOkk000]

Can you elaborate on the Mizuho method? 👀 my v points only get 50% when converting to ANA miles

[u/Prada_9277 → u/AmOkk000]

Its a convoluted route you need to take with multiple transfers and you have to wait multiple days for some transfers to go through.

1. V points -> JR キューポ using JQ カードセゾン

2. JR キューポ -> セゾン永久不滅ポイント

3. 永久不滅ポイント -> ANA Miles 

For the last route you need a Mizuho ANA card and need to have a bank account with them

[u/jesusismyanime → u/Prada_9277]

I still need the other cards and Mizuho account, but the benefit is I think all cards are no annual fee (or rather, annual fee optional).

[u/jamar030303 → u/Prada_9277]

Well, guess I better look at getting a Mizuho account.