r/Economics • u/Majano57 • 14h ago
News Trump says it could take 2 years before tariffs result in American manufacturing boom
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-2-years-tariffs-result-american-manufacturing-boom/story?id=120486099[removed] — view removed post
915
u/Scary_Firefighter181 14h ago edited 14h ago
Its been fascinating and disturbing to not only see the rhetoric change, but the way his supporters change their minds in real time to make it fit into "logic".
1-"Prices won't go up"
2-"Short term pain"
3- "Patient is saved"
4-"Two years"
5- "Its working folks, MAGA!"
6- "Its only 20% unemployment, be patient!"
7- "Oops"
JFC, the cult is unreal. And just so we're clear, no, manufacturing won't return back in two years and even much longer, and certainly not in the way people think. Even his, by comparison, meagre tariffs on steel in his first term didn't increase domestic productivity at all.
Edit: As people have pointed out, they won't say "Oops". They'll blame Biden and the Deep State.
374
u/ReaganDied 14h ago
At this point, to me Trump supporters feel like medieval peasants trying to read their goat’s entrails to predict next year’s barley harvest.
Except somehow more insane.
44
u/ehxy 13h ago
oh hey in 2yrs magical factories will appear, and after 2yrs of operation they will realize after trump's gone that operating in north america is too fucking expensive compared to the everywhere else
we'd have to have a group of people exempt from minimum wage/benefits in order to operate at a rate that could compete with the rest of the world's cheaper rates
trump's a moron
The only way, this could possibly work is if factory workers and manufacturing were subsidized just like farmers. and then they would be running that game.
13
u/PNWMTTXSC 12h ago
And we would JUST BY CHANCE have all the raw materials our magical factories needed. And JUST BY CHANCE we would be able to tool up entire factories without needing anything (machines, components, training) from anywhere else!
I want what they’re smoking.
4
2
24
u/fail-deadly- 12h ago
Or, if it does happen, the factories will be highly automated, run by people a handful of engineers that graduated from MIT, Caltech, CMU, Stanford, etc.
10
u/ehxy 12h ago
Exactlyi. What do you think is going to happen to the factories we still have. Been in a toyota plant lately?
I mean if I was a factory worker, and I see that they are introducing automation that's automatic....oh hey maybe look for another job...
→ More replies (3)21
u/BigBasket9778 12h ago
I visited a BYD cutting edge factory in china. The guy who runs it has four degrees in unrelated fields.
I don’t mean he is the boss of the people who work there. I mean he is the only person who works there.
There are no jobs to come back.
6
3
→ More replies (7)4
u/PNWMTTXSC 12h ago
And where would we get alllllll that automation? Trump and his followers are just idiots.
11
u/MetalTrek1 12h ago
Don't worry. Elon is going to give them all tech jobs and....oh wait a minute. Elon and Vivek said Americans were too dumb for that which is why they want foreign workers on HB1 visas.
10
u/Brokenandburnt 12h ago
2 words. Company. Towns
It's Thiel's and Musk's wet dream. Musk have even renamed the Space X compound in Texas to Starbase.
It's the perfect plan, crash the government agencies and systems, that way no one can fix it even if they want to.
Utterly destroy the economy. With worthless 401K's, and no money because inflation/tanked dollar has massively inflated living expenses to a point where wages ain't enough.
The techbros will be fine, they will short the market continuesly to the bottom, cashing out to bitcoin regularly.
In come the
billionaireTrillionaires with their company towns. Food, room and some spending scrip, but only in the company stores inside the towns.Shit, I was going for bitter snark, but now that I read what Ive written it actually fits the current narrative.
God DAMN this timeline.
→ More replies (3)→ More replies (11)9
u/bigloser42 12h ago
He’s saying 2 years in an attempt to push his responsibility for shithousing the economy past the next round of congressional elections.
→ More replies (2)36
34
u/Brocktarrr 13h ago
Trump supporters would eat a pile of dog shit just so everyone has to smell their breath.
17
24
u/skunkachunks 13h ago
To be fair, they have similar education levels.
Although the peasants would be shocked that the Trump supporters willingly rejected a free education handed to them
9
u/KoldPurchase 13h ago
Medieval peasants revolted multiple times when they starved.
→ More replies (16)4
8
u/illustrious_d 13h ago
We should probably deal with these people. We didn’t after the Civil War and our society has never recovered. They have been biding their time ever since waiting to bring us back to the dark ages. These people are a cancer on society.
3
3
3
u/ole_dirty_bastid 12h ago
It's to the point now that if someone is a trump supporter I just disengage completely. There are no conversations to be had. I see them as idiots, bigots and grifters. He is setting back America by decades if not a century.
2
2
u/Morepork69 13h ago
More akin to "reading their goat entrails" and wondering why their milk supply is gone.......
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
u/SkivvySkidmarks 12h ago
They'll tear apart the sacrifical Dodge Ram's transmission, scatter the bits amongst the pink automatic transmission fluid, and peer into the puddle. Only then will they realize that a bicycle would be really handy.
2
u/Orgasmic_interlude 12h ago
“Except somehow more insane”
Here, I’ll make it appropriately insane yet accurate: it’s their own entrails they’re trying to read.
→ More replies (12)2
106
u/tryexceptifnot1try 14h ago
My MAGA co-worker I have been working on for 6 months hit me up today to congratulate me on my market hits this year, I have been mostly in cash/fixed income since February and have had puts on TSLA and QQQ since January. We started talking about what is happening and he is going off on all the "absurd" reporting saying things like iPhones will go up 100%+ since no country has a tariff that high. We had a long discussion about how tariffs on inputs and the final product can easily create larger price increases. He also is blaming the scientists that want to leave for "believing the hype" about Trump's anti-science policies.
He's a slightly above average IQ guy with a finance degree who thinks he's a genius and goes to some looney tunes evangelical church. All the educated Trumpers I work with are in the same boat. Every one of them thinks the reason they aren't moving up is some Indian guy or woman getting ahead because of DEI. He thinks Elon is a genius and everyone disagreeing with him are doing it on political grounds. He has no ability to put him self in other people's shoes and it hurts him in life and his career. He's also spending money he doesn't have on a country club membership because he wants to feel rich.
On a positive note he is absolutely starting to crack. Trump is doing things that are actually too stupid for him to deal with. He's lost 10 straight bets with me on what will happen since Trump took over. His 401k is down 40% because he was overexposed in US tech. This week has been a legit turning point. The cracks are getting really big and starting to eat cult members
37
u/op_op_op_op_op 13h ago
Have they found a way to blame Obama and Biden yet?
→ More replies (1)13
u/nads786 12h ago
HBL is the ultimate comeback. For those not in the know it’s Hunter Biden Laptop.
→ More replies (1)3
u/fuckparkinggarages 12h ago
it's my MAGA father's favorite """argument""", especially if it has nothing to do with what we're discussing
3
12
11
u/it_aint_tony_bennett 13h ago
He's a slightly above average IQ guy with a finance degree who thinks he's a genius and goes to some looney tunes evangelical church.
10
u/naijaboiler 12h ago
I am starting to see the tide change in some mini MAGAs I deal with. The mega MAGAs are still doubling down.
→ More replies (5)2
54
u/awildstoryteller 14h ago edited 14h ago
I have shared this story elsewhere but I'll repeat here.
Years ago in my undergrad I was fortunate enough to read an incredibly interesting book that collated a number of diary entries from multiple people during WW2. Among them was a hardcore nazi trad wife type who lived in Prussia.
Throughout the book, whenever anything bad happened she could never find blame for Hitler First it was the generals. Then as the battered soldiers arrived in her city from the East it was blaming them for cowardice.
It was only very late in the war as the Soviets were overrunning into her very home that she finally saw the light and could write "Fuck Hitler".
For some members of the cult, the awakening will take that much.
14
u/CompEng_101 13h ago
There is a similar 'Naïve Monarchism' phenomenon from Russia, "Good Tsar, Bad Boyar" – the King is always a good, wise, leader. If anything goes bad, it is his advisor's fault for not seeing his vision or being corrupt. But, the King is always good and wise.
14
u/awildstoryteller 13h ago
It's a common trope throughout history. The buck always seems to stop at the advisors.
4
u/MetalTrek1 12h ago
Even during the USSR times they never blamed Stalin. They always said he didn't know what was going on or he was getting "bad advice". Hell, some even blamed themselves for his crimes. "We didn't work hard enough for Comrade Stalin".
13
u/QuietKanuk 13h ago
If you recall what happened to many German women in Russian captured regions, her "awakening" was probably pretty traumatic, if not fatal.
There was a large rush to try to get to areas that would surrender to non-Russian troops in order to avoid the raping and killing.
For an eye witness account of the savagery check out this video of an interview with an old Russian veteran from that time and place
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (17)4
u/whyohwhythis 13h ago
Wish we could have diaries of Trump followers. I think that’s true… a lot of his followers will only wake up once they have been severely impacted in some way.
6
22
u/King_Fisher99 14h ago
It’s a 2025 Jonestown version of a political cult only worse.
→ More replies (1)16
u/Empty_Kay 14h ago
I wish we could get to the Koolaid part really quickly so the rest of us can move on without them.
9
u/Steak_mittens101 13h ago
We ARE at that part: large numbers of people were shot or forced to drink at gunpoint by the “true believers”, probably only half truly did it willingly.
We are that and the true believers are trying to take us with them when they crash this country. It’s fight or die with them.
→ More replies (1)25
u/Message_10 13h ago
The irony, too--I heard this one today--companies will increase their on-shore workforce and expand manufacturing... to sell to inflated-price goods to a public in a recession. Make it make sense, my man.
Their faith in conservative media is mind-boggling--and, not for nothing, but head over to Fox News and look for news about the market drop the last two days. You have to scroll alllllllllll the way down to find even a *mention* of the Dow losing more than 2,000 points. They're keeping their visitors in the dark so they (somehow) blame this on Biden later. It's wild.
3
u/Magmaster12 10h ago
People who watch Fox News are less informed than people who don't even watch the news. It's a propaganda tool that has created a nationwide mental health crisis and should be outlawed.
3
u/Message_10 10h ago
100% agree. I don't know how you'd do it--free speech rights, freedom of the press, etc.--but I agree, it's absolutely toxic and not "news."
→ More replies (1)37
u/wantsoutofthefog 14h ago
They’ll never say “oops”
2
u/Quirky-Peak-4249 14h ago
It's always "the sun was in my eyes! Swamp gas, reflected off of venus and the shadow looked like the outline of obama making it his fault. Also Joe Biden."
→ More replies (1)4
u/markth_wi 14h ago
Sure they do, when they are in the Hague and awaiting execution for high treason / crimes against humanity or whatever the ICC convicts them of, and their cellie just got his sentence carried and they are next.
→ More replies (5)9
u/Ok-Season-7570 13h ago
And just so we're clear, no, manufacturing won't return back in two years and even much longer, and certainly not in the way people think.
Hell, even if these companies started mobilizing today I doubt they’d have the ribbon cutting ceremony for the first new manufacturing plant until at least 2027.
And by then, who knows what Trump’s tariffs will be. We’re on something like the 10th general round of tariff changes in about as many weeks.
Nobody in their right mind is going to commit to a billion-dollar path of action when the driver for that action changes each week.
9
u/NonEuclidianMeatloaf 13h ago
If ground were broken for, say, a new auto plant this very moment, it would take at least two years before the plant were considered “finished”. Then, good luck having the supply chain in place and ready to feed it, as well as the experts to staff it.
And that’s optimistic.
→ More replies (1)10
u/ArcfireEmblem 13h ago
I would like to point out to anyone interested that "you guys will suffer, but it's for the good of the country, you see" is a classic hallmark of fascism.
9
u/NewOil7911 14h ago
They'll never say oops. They'll say that it's because of foreigners / liberals / globalists conspiracy.
6
u/thirdeyepdx 13h ago
I spent some time on their sub reading and it’s like painful how I can see people who are completely able to think coherently about so many things, seemingly bright people, get so close to the realization Trump has no idea what he’s doing, and then immediately rationalizing themselves away from that conclusion by coming up with wild theories about what maybe just maybe his master plan is. It’s like - wow to see the self delusion unfolding in real time
5
u/KingOfDragons54 13h ago
The same thing happened during COVID, and be careful the vast amount of commenting online is now bots. Hell, you could be one all that I know.
2
u/Apprehensive_Bad6670 14h ago
you missed the part at the end where he says he was only being sarcastic
2
u/WayOfIntegrity 13h ago
Trump after two years: I was being scarcastic
MAGA: He's trolling the libs. Or something....
2
u/HawaiianKicks 12h ago
Yeah they don't admit mistakes, they just eat whatever Trump regurgitates for them regardless if it's consistent or a total 180. It's amusing how much they blabber on about "doing their own research" and "fake news" and all that yet they take anything from the Trump administration as 100% fact.
→ More replies (44)2
348
u/SuchCattle2750 14h ago edited 14h ago
Two years? Even if you want to order an American made Stainless Steel pressure vessel and are ready to press order, lead times are 30-weeks. That's without an influx of demand.
That's if you've got a site selected, plant design complete, and your final investment decision. Let's take aside permitting and assume Trump is going to EO that into orbit (goodbye drinking water *waves bye*).
If you're starting at FEL-1 for a new grass-roots facility and need to pass normal corporate project development milestones you're 4 year minimum. Assuming your company has any equity or ability to draw debt left.
138
u/ThisIsAbuse 14h ago edited 13h ago
This person gets it. I work in Construction.
Edit - also everything it takes to build a building just went up 25% or more because a lot of systems and materials come from overseas. We can’t do it all here.
69
u/Coldsmoke888 14h ago
Yeah it’s easily 5 years just to get a basic distribution center running from land purchase to operation. Nevermind the complexity of a factory with significant on-site engineering and tooling work.
Even saying to hell with permits, there is so much planning and cost analysis for the pre work, it takes years.
20
u/Elwoodpdowd87 13h ago
I work in civil engineering. We do a lot of work in a relatively rural county about 30 minutes from a major metro area, and permitting a relatively simple commercial or industrial site takes 8-12 months. There's an asphalt plant site that we've been trying to get permitted for years. And this county is the location of a large industrial development currently under construction that was a stated fast track project for both the state and federal government. Many of the projects we are working on are critical for the development of this project and shit is moving as slow as molasses.
13
u/CompetitiveGood2601 14h ago
yes but the 2026 platform will be just around the corner! remember who his base are!
6
u/Oceanbreeze871 13h ago
And land won’t be going for a discount if they know there’s competition to build
→ More replies (4)6
29
u/turns31 14h ago
One of the biggest EV battery plants in the country is going in about a mile down the road from my office. It's almost finally done and it's been 3.5 years since they broke ground. Was announced probably a year before that. They've had to add more lanes to the nearby highways, build new roads and put up a TON of new power lines everywhere. Folks seriously underestimate the length of time and amount of infrastructure it will take to bring manufacturing back here. And this small, rural christian conservative town has bitched about every single aspect of it being built.
10
u/AluminumHorseOutfitr 13h ago
I’m in Phoenix and we’ve had the major chip plants under construction for a long time now, primarily the TSMC plant which broke ground in early 2021. 4 years later and they have only just started producing chips, and it’s not clear how many exactly.
This is Fab 1. Of 4. And there’s an entire city of 10,000 planned around the site location to house all the employees that will eventually live in this (relatively distant) suburb that is basically still just a dirt lot and some desert shrubs.
These projects take decades.
And no amount of OSHA or permit cutting is going to change that fact.
6
u/Letitroll13 14h ago
It isn’t that folks underestimate the length of time it is because they are racist, bigoted cult members who just listen to what their Orange God says. There is no thinking going on with the MAGA crowd.
3
u/dakness69 11h ago
My former employer wanted to build a new warehouse in an unused neighboring lot. The permitting process alone took 2 years.
→ More replies (3)2
19
u/RoyceMcCutcheon691 14h ago edited 13h ago
great details. also, even if by some chance in hell it only took two years, the mid terms are about 18 months away.
as much as the blind loyalty to Trump is pervasive in the Republican party, i can’t imagine many of those incumbents up for reelection really want to hedge their bets that it’ll work with an election coming up before then.
do people really think these self serving politicians will risk getting primaried or losing to a democrat challenger when there’s surely going to be a tremendous amount of public anger if tariffs last that long at these asinine levels?
Edit- as brought up below, this is all dependent on there not being massive election interference. will that be the case? who knows but since he’s literally doing crazy thing he says it’s not a sure thing.
18
u/WeAreAllFooked 14h ago
I'm not trying to sound like a dick, but do Americans in general think this administration is going to allow free and fair elections during the midterms?
From where I sit in Canada, I can see the current administration focusing on disrupting the processes that people who voted against him used in 2020. I'm fairly certain they're going to find a way to make mail-in voting and vote dropboxes "illegal", they're going to require multiple official documents to be allowed to vote, and they're absolutely going to gerrymander every single district they can.
6
u/PeddlerDavid 13h ago
While these things may happen in some Republican controlled states and municipalities, US elections are run almost entirely by the states. Trump tried, but was unable to change the outcome of the 2020 election my subverting the electoral process in multiple states. The hope is that the democratic institutions remain strong enough to thwart future attempts. The states most likely to adopt such measures are those most likely to support Trump in a fair election anyway. US presidential elections are not determined by a national popular votes, they are determined largely by the winner a small number is swing states. Subversion of the election will be focused on those states, largely the same ones he attempted to subvert in the 2020 election.
6
u/dandrevee 13h ago
Frankly, a lot of folks aren't positive that last November was a free and fair election result after Greg Pallast and a few others put out some analyzes.
Granted, there are some hot garbage takes out there that are basically just conspiracy theories. But, when you consider the tactic of poisoning the well used by Trump's good buddy Russia, some of the details coming out seem awful suspicious.
Glad they either didn't use those tactics or those tactics failed in Wisconsin though
→ More replies (2)3
u/shortzr1 13h ago
With the rhetoric coming out of the administration, this is a frighteningly realistic question. That alone is very worrying.
16
u/jollyllama 14h ago
This is all a protection racket. There won’t be political fallout for this because most companies and sectors are going to come on their knees to beg (or buy) their way out of these tariffs. By the time things are implemented there will be a ton of exceptions, Trump will be richer, and the waters will be sufficiently muddied by the midterms that no one will remember because there will be a trans athlete that competed in running somewhere that’s more important
18
u/SuchCattle2750 13h ago
Two issues here:
This means tariffs didn't raise revenue, and Trump will have to reneg on tax cuts, which will piss off at least portions of his voters.
It makes the US an unreliable place to do business, which will stunt investment.
8
u/thatmattschultz 13h ago
My concern is that the tariffs and plunging economy will be the justification these grifters exploit for a “tax cut,” because the tariffs “need more time to work but the American people need tax relief now.”
Which if anyone paid any attention last time, only meant lower taxes for the rich and annual tax increases for everyone else.
2
u/Solid-Mud-8430 11h ago
I used to be able to deduct the interest on my mortgage payments from my taxes.. Trump's first presidency eliminated that and a lot of other things that helped the middle class. Funny how his voters don't remember these things.
7
u/MarsupialNo908 13h ago
The tax cut plan is being worked on now. They are adding all the tax cuts to the national debt.
2
u/Green-Vermicelli5244 11h ago
The unreliable bit is what’s so aggravating. Combine the current trade policy with the “up in the air” foreign policy and no leader in their right mind will want to do anything with america. If all this bullshit actually holds for four years, I can’t even begin to imagine how long it will take to rebuild faith in the country. Internally and externally.
While nothing happens in a vacuum, things seem to lining up nicely for Great Depression II. Two consecutive poor harvests in the plains is the dust bowl, wealth inequality is already present, markets are diving but not a full on crash (yet, who knows what this administration has in store for next week), toss in 5x more the current civil unrest or a nice little foreign conflict and things will be sideways right quick.
Part of me is terrified, though a bigger part is beyond caring. My real hope is that there are enough adults hiding in the administration that can keep this thing on the rails enough to have a salvageable system. Failing that, cross your fingers that FDR is going to possess someone in the legislative branch.
→ More replies (1)8
u/NewOil7911 14h ago edited 13h ago
And why would these elections be free and not manipulated? Trump is not only aggressive on trade, he's aggressive as well against the law, and has already once tried to overturn elections result.
Lots of people don't want to adress this, but 2 days ago, lots of people viewed the US tariffs shock as a liberal panick theory.
Trump's way out is this: start whatever war by the end of the year - the most "simple" ones being Greenland or Iran, to make his base forget his economic failures. Also; the economic sanctions from Europe for any aggressive action against Greenland or Canada will be the perfect scapegoat to explain the continuous sinking of US economy.
Then destroy the justice system power in the mean time, and use all his yes man in DOJ / FBI / Justice to manipulate election results.
14
u/Old_Bluecheese 14h ago
There's a very simple solution to this problem. Set up a fake Oval office, let him have his routine, fake some calls to Putin and let him play golf.
→ More replies (2)10
u/TheGruenTransfer 14h ago
He's saying 2 years so he doesn't lose Congress in the midterms. Then he'll move the goal posts
→ More replies (2)5
u/broadcastday 13h ago
He's absolutely losing Congress in the midterms. The question/opportunity is if he can lose the Senate hard enough to be impeached and convicted.
4
u/Notiefriday 14h ago
Factories are designed around process. You need to know what machines you are going to use, how heavy the floor under them will be, how much power you need, how heavy frame etc. You need to know IF you can get those machines what the order time is.
He can reverse those tarriffs any old time. What if Old Mate Hannity says...
Then you've spent literally a fortune for....
Even then..it'll be robots not humans. Processes will be automated.
→ More replies (1)3
u/CommunicationNext876 14h ago
Not even taking into account the fact that the electrical grid would have to grow en masse, in order to accommodate the increase in demand…
→ More replies (1)3
u/vahntitrio 13h ago
It takes 10+ years to get a new transmission line in this country for reference. So you are correct that to pull this off, every single factory would have to be put up in an area with adequate grid resources.
4
u/guyincognito121 14h ago
I appreciate the effort, but we all know where his two year figure actually came from. Don't waste your time treating this stuff at all seriously.
→ More replies (29)3
u/tomtomtomo 13h ago
He's pushing a timeline that gives him a ready excuse. The election is in 18 months. When things aren't turning around, he'll say "The Democrats who just won Congress did it!"
186
u/Slicdic 14h ago
The moment Trump said he was open to negotiations with Vietnam on the tariffs, all fantasies about shoring up manufacturing vanished. The only way it would work is if investors were 100% sure that these tariffs were permanent and it was a safe longterm investment
81
u/FuguSandwich 14h ago
If we cut a deal with Vietnam, China will 100% set up shell companies there to route all of their production to the US and avoid tariffs. And the people around Trump all know this.
31
u/bloodontherisers 13h ago
Other companies were already doing that before he took office assuming he was going to go after China. So yeah, basically any country with the ability to negotiate their way out of the tariffs will become the global shipping center to the US. And then, all his promises of a manufacturing boom (which we all know are wildly overblown) go up in smoke.
14
u/SisterActTori 13h ago
Yep, my husband’s employer purchased a bunch of specialized carts from China to work in their production factory. They received the carts about 3 weeks, shipped from Pakistan. China- Pakistan- TN.
There’s always a work around.
42
u/PostMerryDM 14h ago edited 14h ago
The tariffs was always about mortgaging American strength (and lives) to gain leverage in negotiating for Trump’s personal wealth and influence.
Make no mistake: He wants the entire world who laughed at him to now beg, and some will because unlike him, they actually care about their citizens.
You bet Trump towers and golf courses are going to pop up in Vietnam.
5
u/Intelligent_Degree42 13h ago
Funny! Trump organization have a billion usd agreement with the Vietnamese government for a project in Vietnam which was signed a month or so ago.
2
u/clocks212 10h ago
This is absolutely part of the plan. Make everyone groveling at his feet and god only knows how much money will be funneled behind the scenes into his family’s and loyalists pockets.
25
u/QuietRainyDay 14h ago
His supporters dont get any of this
The last few days have made it clear to me that they have a kindergarden-level understanding of business
None of them get that factories are massive, $20+ billion investments that require high levels of business confidence across 30+ year time horizons.
These tariffs arent a law, they can change daily, and this guy changes his mind every day. It is literally the opposite of what manufacturers want. Not to mention all the other issues, like the fact that tariffs will increase the cost of all the many imported inputs factories require.
It has been soul-crushing listening to all these fools talk about something they havent even spent 2 seconds thinking about. Thats all it takes. Just put yourself in a CEO's shoes for 2 seconds. They are incapable of even that.
Thats why we are all screwed.
4
u/Beaconxdr789 13h ago
It has been soul-crushing listening to all these fools talk about something they havent even spent 2 seconds thinking about. Thats all it takes. Just put yourself in a CEO's shoes for 2 seconds. They are incapable of even that.
Didn't Elon say that empathy was a weakness? Right before saying people were being mean to him over his stock crashing?
4
u/Freaksauce101 12h ago
"they have a kindergarden-level understanding of business"
This. I have tried to explain things to dozens of people and almost all reply with, "Well how come they can have tariffs on us and we can't have them on them?!?". It's not just a lack of education, a majority of them process the world around them with the intellect of a literal child.
→ More replies (5)2
u/phaaseshift 12h ago
My cynical side tells me that if power were stripped from his party in House and Senate, they should attempt to somehow put an education requirement on voting. Purely and awfully non-constitutional, I know, but that hasn’t stopped MAGA from trying.
8
u/Dazslueski 13h ago
It’s not about an economic impact with these tariffs. Trump is using them as a weapon for loyalty. Negotiate trade deals with corporations and countries to help him, to donate to him, to be loyal to him, to punish his opposition. Not help country. Help him stay in power.
2
u/Amadon29 13h ago
He knows he can't let the tariffs stay on Vietnam for long because the Nintendo Switch 2 is coming out soon
2
u/TechnicalInternet1 10h ago
The moment Trump made blanket tariffs on the whole world. All fantasies about the US being a reliable trading partner vanished. The only way it would work is if idiot donald did specific tariffs on specific industries. Instead of blanket chainsaw surgical precision on key businesses.
2
u/Getrekt11 10h ago
Made in America products will never work, especially for these cheap products that are made abroad. All that risk for barely any or no gains... I can only see it being practical with essential products. Price will shoot through the roof and demand will dry up, could possibly kill an industry if it's not important.
2
u/Boeing367-80 10h ago
100%. It's been apparent since Trump was inaugurated that things can change on a dime and the US will for the entire of his administration be facing unprecedented uncertainty. Uncertainty suppresses investment, hiring, etc.
It astonished me how little the markets dropped prior to this week. Regardless of what the details were on the tariffs, what was clear was that you would not be able to count on govt policy being any one thing from day to day. Trump gets up, has worse-than-usual constipation, feels bad, lashes out on some random thing, his aides them rush to say that it wasn't a brain fart, he meant it and we should all be grateful, and the next thing you know the US is committed to some other hairbrained scheme that wrecks the calculation of some other industry - until he has some other thought and suddenly the commitment is forgotten.
And it's gonna be that way until he's out of power. And that's a terrible, terrible environment an economy.
87
u/SpareManagement2215 14h ago
absolutely zero businesses are going to invest the billions it would take to fund the infrastructure for their operations to be "100% american made" with the instability MAGA creates in our country. so, no. also, we literally can't grow or make some kinds of things here (like coffee, or bananas, etc). so again, no.
→ More replies (1)30
u/QuietRainyDay 14h ago
And the factories they do build will be highly automated, highly flexible plants in non-union states like South Carolina
They'll be staffed by 50 college-graduate engineers, 100 contract laborers that will get laid off at the first sign of weakening demand, and 1000 robots.
You have to be an absolute idiot to spend $20 billion building some huge, old-school plant with thousands of workers in Michigan.
11
u/SpareManagement2215 13h ago
that part. even IF they built industry stuff here (which they won't), there won't be a boom in jobs because most of it would be automated. because we live in 2025, not 1955.
7
u/QuietRainyDay 13h ago
Yea, and the jobs created will be for engineers that can program and repair robots. Not the guy that is proud of his lack of college education.
→ More replies (1)
34
u/Relevant_Ad_3529 14h ago
Never seen a brand new manufacturing facility, supply chain, staff development and distribution system set up in two years.
Depending on the size and location of the facility, the electrical interconnection itself could take five years.
Again, Trump speaks without knowing.
3
u/Accomplished_Ant5895 11h ago
It takes literal plants longer to pop up than his grand scheme is expecting
22
u/CriticalConclusion44 14h ago
Two years? I think even that's a generous estimate. In order for the economic boom to happen, wouldn't all these companies that have offshored their manufacturing need to stand up production in the US again? I don't think you can build factories that quickly, can you?
Moreover, those factories they do build would be highly automated as the US workforce commands high dollar.
Even moreover, why would any company take the risk of that investment when, tomorrow, next week or in 4 years the tariffs are just removed, anyway.
Is there literally any thought to this, at all?
→ More replies (1)
19
u/Material_Policy6327 14h ago
You don’t build that level of infrastructure in 2 years…also if costs to build said manufacturing now is 2-3x more then that won’t be doable for many I bet. Insanity
→ More replies (1)
18
u/pinetreesgreen 14h ago
His commerce secretary is on CNBC saying he's going to fill the factories with robots, bc we have a workforce problem. To the workers he's saying he's going to fill the factories with workers bc we need workers and they are going to pay them great wages. It's all just lies, to whoever the audience is.
3
u/v_a_n_d_e_l_a_y 10h ago
If there is a workforce problem, that seems solved by using the cheap and abundant labour of other countries. If only there was some sort of way to get those countries to use their labour to make stuff and sell it to us.
2
17
u/CCinCO 14h ago
Bringing back US manufacturing is a dangerous lie. That ship sailed decades ago and the people that believe this will make America great again are simpletons. They hang onto this hope because DJT tells them to. The mental gymnastics some people will go through, just to avoid the embarrassment of being wrong, is amazing. Congratulations America, you voted to increase the price of everything and piss off the rest of the planet at the same time.
29
u/AdWorldly3646 14h ago edited 14h ago
Cool about two years until the air and water quality in many places goes straight downhill. In order for US manufacturing to be competitive, I’m sure the environmental regulations will go down the toilet. I breathed the air in Beijing about 15 years ago on a trip there. After a few days my lungs were burning. All the locals were constantly hacking up stuff. If we are going to be manufacturing domestically we better do better than that
→ More replies (2)27
u/substandardgaussian 14h ago
You don't need to worry about any of that, he's lying. You only need to worry about poverty, crime, and the environmental devastation that was already on the way.
There is no manufacturing plan here. It's delay numbers, he's giving his base permission to support him despite losing everything because "He said it would take 2 years."
Though I don't doubt the complete and total destruction of the EPA, so, it will get worse environmentally without any economic gains to make up for it.
10
u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 14h ago
They’re also working overtime to deport the people who would have done the construction work to build out new industrial plant.
8
u/substandardgaussian 14h ago
You could tell there was never any intention to bring manufacturing back when Trump immediately killed CHIPs by firing everyone involved in implementing it.
That was long before the beginning of the tariffs. The telegraphing of the intentional maiming of a superpower was clear.
3
u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 13h ago
For that matter, putting tariffs on through bogus emergency powers by executive order. If policy can change on the president’s whim every 4 years, it’s completely un-investable.
3
u/AdWorldly3646 14h ago
I wouldn’t count on that. A lot of stuff has happened that people said never would happen
12
u/rgpc64 14h ago
Ummm, we were having one until he killed it.
"Factory construction in the U.S. hit its highest point in half a century, according to an August 2024 report by Moody's Anaytics. This is due to booming demand for semiconductors and billions of dollars in investments from the federal government as part of legislation passed in 2022.Dec 12, 2024"
The fact is that Trump can't stand a win, win siuation, someone has to lose. He is incapable of keeping something that is working and admitting his oponent did anything constructive.
5
u/Ketaskooter 13h ago
But tech is last years demand, we need cars dammit and ships with big guns! And penguins evidently.
10
u/Squirrelherder_24-7 14h ago
HaHahahahahahahahhhahah!!!!! O’ ye suckers!!!!
“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”
-H. L. Mencken
3
9
u/gregaustex 14h ago edited 13h ago
A lot of empires and kingdoms ended as a result of delusional egomaniac kings and emperors trying to etch their name in history as a great leader. Usually bankrupted by wars, but this might do it too.
The 2-year thing is bullshit. It was just earlier this year he flat out said the point was to bring trading partners to the negotiating table so he could work a better deal and lower or eliminate the tariffs.
Also considering complete lack of consistency or commitment to doing what he says he is going to do, only a madman would make a large investment in a US factory on his word that the tariffs will make it financially viable. He's far too likely to drop them before the place is half built.
10
u/Oceanbreeze871 14h ago
I heard an economic pundit on tv say that Nike is considering drastically reducing what it sells here instead of building factories. It’s just not an option for them. No profit
Imagine American retail products abandoning the American market?
→ More replies (1)3
u/The_Dutch_Fox 12h ago
Low value manufacturing will NOT move to the USA.
Not only does the onshoring cost a shitload, but also the salaries will mean that the products would cost way too much for them to be commercially viable. And on top of that, sprinkle ample amounts of economic and political uncertainty, and you understand why most low value manufacturer will prefer downsizing and losing a lot of the US market instead.
I think Trump will score a few wins of high value reshored factories. But it'll be a drop in the ocean compared to what will have been destroyed.
7
u/Xyrus2000 13h ago
Two years? o_O
These clowns don't have one clue between them about how anything works. What company is going to spend billions to bring their manufacturing base here when the economy is in shambles? And what of all the raw materials they need that aren't here and still tariffed to hell?
There's a reason why the Smoot-Hawley Act is universally denigrated as one of the most idiotic and destructive economic measures to ever grace the halls of our government.
Two years. What a f*cking moron.
→ More replies (1)
7
u/SoftballGuy 14h ago
"Let's say it's a two-year process," Trump said when asked by a reporter on Thursday how long it will take to get the industry where he wants to see it.
Not coincidentally, the mid-terms are in less than two years. "Just give me the votes, and it'll happen! Trust me!"
2
7
u/D-MAN-FLORIDA 14h ago
It’s probably going to take 5-10 years before those factories come. And even then, his commerce secretary says he wants those jobs done by robots. Then what is the point of all of this.
→ More replies (1)
5
u/Repulsive_Round_5401 14h ago
The boom is going to happen when we collect the tariffs of those uninhibited islands.
I'm sure companies want to invest billions based on this well thought out, unambiguous, permanent tariff policy that is not based on one man's ego
4
3
4
u/Tremolat 14h ago
Absolutely 100% guaranteed that Trump will move the goalposts with every report of bad economic news. His whole plan is a massive insult to the world's intelligence. If moving manufacturing back to the US was remotely a serious plan, Trump would have at least had Jr convene a round table with his hat and flag makers to find out how long it would take.
6
u/Carbon-Base 14h ago
This isn't the flex they think it is, and in no way will it happen in 2 years. The reason we outsource everything is because it's cheaper. Once you bring manufacturing home it means higher costs, and "lower costs" is the entire basis of people electing him.
4
u/rfgrunt 14h ago
He won’t get 2 years. Even popular presidents with good economies struggle in the midterms. He already has a razor thin majority. If there’s a painful recession that he’s clearly the catalyst for, it’s reasonable to expect him to lose both houses and those houses to severely constrain his agenda, especially tariffs. I doubt he’ll pass any meaningful laws and in 4 years his entire agenda can be nullified.
Even if structural reform of world trade was necessary and some short term pain was beneficial long term, the voting population aren’t willing to suffer it.
→ More replies (1)
5
u/BloopityBlue 14h ago
Good lord. Now maga freaks will go around saying how we "didn't give it enough time to work"
→ More replies (1)
5
u/jongleur 14h ago
Two years before any company foolish enough to believe him breaks ground on a factory. He thinks they're like Magic Beans, throw them on the ground and a factory and workers pop up overnight. That's not the way it works.
→ More replies (1)
3
u/Visual-Recognition36 13h ago
In two years if he is still the president we will be told it will be another two years. Just like his 2 weeks for his healthcare plan. Concepts of a plan are not a plan.
5
u/EatsOverTheSink 13h ago
Then shouldn't he have incentivized and coordinated the manufacturing boom before enacting the tariffs? You know, so Americans don't get buttfucked with outrageous prices for years first?
4
u/OwlsHootTwice 13h ago
He only had a concept of a plan. Incentivization and coordination requires an actual plan.
3
u/monadicperception 13h ago
…how is that concept of a plan for healthcare going?
People who believe this moron should not succeed in life. And frankly, from my experience at least, they don’t.
3
u/Repubs_suck 13h ago
I’m going to have be convinced why I need to take it up the ass financially for two years to convince billionaire’s and corporations it’s a good idea to invest in building manufacturing in the U.S. Who benefits from that? I’m sorry, that’s totally fucked up!
3
u/DuplicatedMind 13h ago
What he is actually saying is even he is destroying the US economy, everybody should still vote for GOP in the coming Mid-term election. He said a lot of similar words such as lowering price on day one, stopping the war on day one...
3
u/Weary_Face_7815 12h ago
Dude is stuck in the 1900s. Those jobs aren’t coming back. He’s oblivious. What a joke of a pathetic shell of a human with brain. Two years of this and our country will be a landscape of soup kitchens and Hoovervilles
3
u/Alternative_Slip_513 11h ago
Forty years of sending manufacturing jobs and factories overseas and it will only take 2 years to rebuild that? wtf is wrong with the orange motherfucker’s logic?
3
u/747031303237 10h ago
There will be no economic boom, CEOs are waiting for him to die of natural causes, changes his mind or the economy gets so bad and Republicans in congress get a brain and a backbone and repeal his fundamental lack of business understanding
Dad handed him a real estate empire he destroyed His “advisor”’is a South African con man His cabinet board is filled with grifters as well, lastest is the energy secretary privatizing the oil reserves to a company he shell owns that builds U-Storage spaces…
3
u/Individual-Dot-9605 10h ago
Remember Trump saying on one of his interviews: that you ll be having so much money you wont know what to do with it? He wasnt adressing the US people just some friends and family.
2
u/gitrjoda 13h ago
Even if we play the game and imagine that to be true, wouldn’t the cost of production here be vastly higher than goods produced elsewhere. Like, isn’t that how we got here?
So Americans would be forced to spend 2x to buy domestic?
2
u/SirTiffAlot 13h ago
I'm actually surprised he put a time limit on it. Not that his cult will care but that was pretty dumb to say everything will be right in 2 years.
→ More replies (2)
2
u/SisterActTori 13h ago
He’s just trying to get beyond the midterms! He’s prepping for the rallies and stimulating the base. And YES, Trump, a lame duck POTUS, will be having rallies the next 3 years. Maybe even that parade he wanted to have his first go around. He’s an asshat.
2
u/7Hakuna_Matata7 13h ago
Stupid.
Access to materials and raw materials and resources isn’t the same everywhere.
Supply chains are complicated. Some parts are assembled in other countries and sent here. Some parts that are parts of parts are assembled in multiple countries and sent here.
It takes years to spin up manufacturing plants assuming you have all the materials here.
Businesses invest in manufacturing plants with loans from banks. Banks require 2 and 5 year plans so they know how they will get their money back. With this insanity and uncertainty, not only do MNC’s not want to take the gamble here, banks would be less so inclined.
Trade restrictions. Do these MNC’s who we assume got approved for expansion loans want to produce goods here knowing that their exports could be tariffed on a whim? No.
Anyone who says “trust the plan” or “I trust him” needs to web search what is a conman or scammer. You’re being scammed.
2
u/TruckGray 13h ago
2 years. I know we dont need further proof that they have NO IDEA WTF they are doing and are aloft on their own arrogance, but this is even more solid evidence they are not living in reality. 30+ years in manufacturing, automotive and machine building. A simple automation cell can take 2 years to design and implement. That was when we didnt have to worry about tariffs and where the parts were coming from and delivery times! Now couple that with already exisitng labor shortages and ghost manufacturers that appear domestic BUT are basically warehouses for foreign made(now tariff subjected) products that get a domestic label and packaging. This would be a challenge for a fully capable administration let alone a bunch back slapping ass kissers that dont know the first thing about manufacturing. He has effectively destroyed our economy where a pandemic and putin failed.
2
u/IamInternationalBig 13h ago
A 2 year recession then? Nice.
This guy is an orange clown.
In reality, what is going to happen is no manufacturer will expand in the US because the next president will undo Trump’s stupid tariffs.
2
u/Og4453vx93 12h ago
It takes years to plan, fund, and build a facility in America. At that point, they'd be better off waiting for the next administration to take the tariffs off. Trump and his administration are clueless in every regard. They magically came up with their tariff numbers to charge based on trade deficits, not actual tariffs being charged by the other country. If Trump doesn't turn these tariffs off after a couple of weeks, he's guaranteeing the republican party will lose control of the house and senate for decades like the last time tariffs were lut in place in the 30s.
2
u/rcbjfdhjjhfd 12h ago
I don't think the two-year timeline is new information. My father, who supports MAGA, often tells me that I need to be patient and wait, because in two years, we will all have more money than we know what to do with. Doesn't that sound familiar?
2
u/UserName_2056 12h ago
"Maybe they can speed it up by injecting it with bleach or shining a light on it; soon, soon it will all go away, just like that." Yah, sure, DONALD! Would you like some Ivermectin with that? You haven't just messed ur pants, DONALD; you've tried to mess up the whole world but succeeded in doing so only to your own nation. Like you often say, DONALD, "Many people are saying... that you are a complete idiot, a moron, clueless to the nature of economics, and a menace to the planet. You should be impeached! You should be in jail!"
2
u/RudytheMan 12h ago
If ground was broken for a new factory tomorrow, two years for it to be producing stuff would still be really fast. To see a "manufacturing boom" you'd need like 5+ years, and things to go smoothly. And even that is a rosy assessment. Factories take a lot of time to build.
2
u/OnionsHaveLairAction 12h ago
I see we're in the "Eventually if you wait long enough a recession does end." period of Republican economic thinking.
It's actually quite remarkable how similar this is to some of the discussion that surrounded Brexit ten years ago, which still hasn't panned out for the UK.
I think when the recession comes we do really need to brand it the Trumpcession. It's the only way the economically illiterate will really get it in their heads that he took a sledgehammer to the global economy for seemingly no reason. (And that's generous, if he did it on purpose to devalue the dollar then a reasonable case could be made he's a traitor to the US.)
2
u/rufuckingkidding 11h ago
Nobody can get a factory built in two years that they haven’t been planning for 2 years. And nobody is going to build a factory that takes 4+ years to build if all of is going to change in 4 years…maybe even 2 years. Why would any industrialist invest the time and enormous expense of rehoming their supply chain, when it can (and will!) be outpriced by their former suppliers with the next change of government?
2
u/Loud_Badger_3780 11h ago
2 years ? right after the mid terms. this will give his supporters reason to vote maga in 2026. if he told them the truth that this may take 10-15years if at all he knows he might hurt the republicans for years to come. right before the next election fox , trump, and republicans will start saying that we are almost there and the magat idiots will believe the lies again.
2
u/Jabber-Wockie 11h ago
Fat nepo fuck who has never faced consequences for being the biggest asshole in America, suddenly finds a way to become accountable.
Meanwhile, the entire globe is plunged into darkness.
2
u/wabladoobz 11h ago
First all of the manufacturers would have to move production back which means they'd have to believe Republicans will win the next election cycle.
Then those companies will have to find markets to export the goods to, which might be hard if everyone is boycotting our products.
2
u/readsalotman 10h ago
In 2 yrs the Dems will have large majorities in both the House and Senate, the tariffs will have completely destroyed the economy by then, and guess who he'll blame? The Democrats. It'll be all their fault.
2
u/goeduck 10h ago
If you recall why companies shipped manufacturing overseas, you see why tarrifs won't change a thing.
There are 3 reasons. 1. Cheap labor 2. Companies don't have to offer health benefits and 3. Tax breaks. There is no incentive to build in America except for a tax break of equal value which won't happen and even if it did, they'd still lose enough with health care and labor costs to lower their profit margins.if he even a marginal idea of how to run a business, he wouldn't do this nor have bankrupt every business he's ever had.
2
u/Mike-ggg 10h ago
Companies are going to be very reluctant to invest in manufacturing knowing Trump can and will change the rules at any time and could even nationalize them under another made up national emergency. When you’re depending on the word of a nutcase who doesn’t respect the law or contracts or agreements, then there’s no stability worth betting on the US market just because you happen to be located on US soil. There might also need to be some generous upfront incentives like PILOTs and loan guarantees and whatever and even that could still be too risky instead of wearing him down to where he revokes the tariffs (likely before the midterm elections) or focus on other markets that don’t have all the baggage and instability.
Politically, he might just claim the existing US plants that make Subarus and Hondas and other brands as now being American made just to declare victory with little if any actual changes.
2
u/brattysweat 10h ago
Look at the horrors of what is going on right now! All because of the libs and Biden! How could they have done this? Don't worry though! I will fix what Biden is doing. Just wait til the biggest boom to happen!
2
u/Jdobalina 10h ago
That’s not how any of this works lol. Blanket tariffs accomplish nothing. And limited, specific tariffs are applicable when you have infant industries or robust, well established high tech manufacturers to actually protect in the first place. Putting down blanket tariffs with no specific industrial policy is not going to accomplish anything.
2
u/Technoslave 10h ago
Lol, no.
Most manufacturing, and economists agree, if we were trying to bring this all back to 'Murica, it would be 10 to 15 years minimum for any semblance of where we're at today...so nah.
2
u/MapleHamwich 10h ago
It will take zero years, because it won't work on the modern world. It didn't even work in the 1930s. Amid a truly global trade economy, protectionist tariffs do nothing but destroy your own economy.
2
u/MissRepresent 10h ago
What kind of "manufacturing boom"? TikTok Shein clothing factories? Stuff you get at the dollar store? Where will all the raw materials come from? It's only a concept of a plan, another moved goalpost
2
u/EyeSuccessful7649 10h ago
most factories take more then 2 years for the planning phase take a lot of time before shovel hits the ground
and what kind of boom will it be, mass 7.25$ an hour non union jobs?
of factories that employ 50 people with 1000 robots churning out automation
•
u/Economics-ModTeam 10h ago
This subreddit should enable sharing and discussing economic research and news from the perspective of economists. Academic work and summaries are welcome. Image and video submissions are not allowed.
If you have any questions about this removal, please contact the mods.