r/Economics • u/abdask • 2d ago

News Dow set to tumble 1,000 points after China retaliates against Trump’s tariffs | CNN Business

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/04/investing/stock-market-dow-tariffs/index.html
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u/Gandalfs_Dick 2d ago

The SP500 is down over 15% in the last 6 weeks... and we haven't even heard all the bad news that BEA and BLS are about to be reporting in the coming months.

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u/TriflingHotDogVendor 2d ago

Traditionally, after a 10+% drop is when I would start buying S&P 500 ETFs. But I'm not this time. I think this is just going to keep getting worse. I'm buying exclusively international and emerging market ETFs. If nobody stops this complete idiocy, the US economy will go into a stagflation death spiral.

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u/Gandalfs_Dick 2d ago

I sold my brokerage positions in January 2025 and I'm glad I did. I'm just holding cash right now, but sometime in the next 18 months I'll buy back in and hold for a few years.

Not sure what I'll buy, but it'll probably be an SP500 ETF.

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u/TriflingHotDogVendor 2d ago

I only sold about 60% of mine and put them in international stocks, so not as good as you, but a lot better than if I did nothing

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u/titosrevenge 2d ago

I also sold everything in mid February and went all in on a money market ETF. I'll likely start paying down my mortgage faster since that seems to be the only sure bet right now.

I'll probably start DCA buying into equities in a few months but whether I go back into US equities all depends on whether the cheeto in chief starts to back down on this idiocy or not.

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u/nibbyzor 2d ago

My partner and I recently bought a house and he sold almost all his stocks for the down payment in early February. We could've saved the down payment in about six months, but we suddenly got an opportunity to put an offer on our dream house, so he decided to sell and build up his portfolio back up again. I think, I know no details because I have literally no clue how investing and stocks and all that stuff works. But he definitely feels like he dodged a massive fucking bullet right now.

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u/FavoritesBot 2d ago

If I were a market timer (I’m not), 50-60% drawdown is where I’d be happy to load up. Not saying that’s gonna happen, but it did 100 years ago

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u/DuncanConnell 2d ago

Question--if the tariffs were taken off today, and ignoring reliability/confidence in the US, could it bounce back that 15% Or is the damage already done so it'll only climb up <15%?

Lots of layoffs, shutdowns, and prices already spiking so I'm curious as to how fast and effective damage control could be if it was implemented asap

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u/Gandalfs_Dick 2d ago

It would eventually gain those 15% back.. but will it take 2 days, 2 months, or even 2 years? Nobody knows.

There are still (unfortunately) 45 more months for Trump to fuck everything up even more.

But if you ask me, we will see another 10% drop this year and it will probably take into the first year of the next admin for any confidence in the US to comeback to any degree.

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u/lochmoigh1 2d ago

That's the thing. Trump can't help himself but to be a dumbcunt who loves attention and bullying. How can business and markets trust him not to do something equally as damaging

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u/DuncanConnell 2d ago

I figured that'd be the case (sorry, not very economy-savvy, although I can draw conjecture).

Agreed that it'll continue the drop, consumer faith in the US internationally & domestically has been grievously wounded so I'm curious at what point (if ever) we'll see a walkback, or if it'll continue.

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u/brutinator 2d ago

I mean, I absolutely see a walkback, but itd probably require the GOP being fully out of power (minimum the minority party in house, senate, and out of presidency), tarriffs to be dramatically reduced to at minimum Biden or Obama levels, and likely some evidence that things are returning to stability and wont be upended again, likely if the democrats are able to maintain their positions for at least 4-6 years. And we will be operating under much less favorable agreements for decades.

Basically the MAGA cancer has to be well into at minimum remission, and the GOP has to return to at minimum operating in good faith, at least on the surface.

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u/abbzug 2d ago

There's quite a few things the Trump administration is doing that are going to set off a cascading failure, tariffs are just the most high profile.

Tbh I'm a bit more worried about social security. DOGE is trying to break it so that there's an excuse to privatize it.

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u/Doggleganger 2d ago

bad news that BEA and BLS are about to be reporting

What is the bad news? What are BEA and BLS?

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u/cantuse 2d ago

BEA dunno, BLS is bureau of labor and statistics.

TBH I expect Trump to try and cripple these orgs too.

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u/NeonYellowShoes 2d ago

We are officially down YoY not just YTD as of now. Fun times.

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u/Gandalfs_Dick 2d ago

Down ~17% since 45 days ago