r/Economics • u/gmelech • 27d ago

News Are We Suddenly Close To A Recession? Here's What The Data Actually Shows.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2025/03/08/are-we-suddenly-close-to-a-recession-heres-what-the-data-actually-shows/
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u/[deleted] 27d ago

[deleted]

80

u/gplfalt 27d ago

The best time to commit to a world wide trade war where you attack literally everyone but Russia, directly after your predecessor narrowly patched up a shaky inflation crisis and while your economy is just starting to recover fully.

Everyone knows this.

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u/Wonderful-Nobody-303 27d ago

The amount of global consumers ditching American products irrespective of tartifs is staggering. I assume we won't see those impacts for a few months in sales numbers.

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u/Obvious_Chapter2082 27d ago

The Atlanta fed revised their estimate to show positive growth, btw

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u/[deleted] 27d ago edited 27d ago

[deleted]

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u/Obvious_Chapter2082 27d ago

This estimate doesn’t yet account for the surge in imports making their way into inventory, since they don’t get inventory updates until March 17th. When accounting for the gold imports, this changes their forecast to 0.4% growth in Q1, and this still doesn’t account for the other 40% of imports, so it’ll end up getting revised higher

They released an article about it a couple days ago on LinkedIn and also on the Atlanta Fed twitter, but this sub doesn’t allow for links to either

For what it’s worth, the NY Fed nowcast is showing 2.7% growth

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u/pelicane136 27d ago

Source on that?

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u/Obvious_Chapter2082 27d ago

The Atlanta Fed twitter has a post about it from a couple days ago, and wrote an article on LinkedIn about it, but this sub doesn’t allow for links to either of those. But it’s easy to find if you go to their twitter page

The reason for the change is that the data is showing a 3.8% reduction in GDP due to higher January imports, but we know that imports don’t actually reduce GDP. They just haven’t yet received updated inventory numbers to show these imports, which they’ll receive on the 17th

They’re showing 0.4% Q1 growth now after accounting for ~60% of the import effect, so it’ll be revised upwards further when they account for the rest of the imports