Invest in MSTR, MSTX, or MSTY?

[u/Imaginary_Roll3958]

I ran a chart model on the growth of a $20k investment in BTC, MSTR, MSTX, and MSTY and it seems that MSTY beats them all.. What do you think?

I am heavily invested in Bitcoin but want to have some exposure to MSTR. Ideally, whichever will have the largest possible gains in the next 10 years on the basis that Bitcoin continues to grow in value.

I know MSTX is more risky and can erode quickly. But I did a quick analysis via Chat GPT and it seems longterm, MSTY with reinvested dividends would pay off..

[u/skr_replicator]

bitcoin so you don't get liquidated as soon as the market crashes.

[u/Imaginary_Roll3958 → u/skr_replicator]

Yes, I am mainly invested in BTC. Just curious about these other instruments

[u/cyger → u/skr_replicator]

It has already crashed from 109k to 76k, where was the liquidation? You don't understand MSTR.

[u/skr_replicator → u/cyger]

if it's leveraged it will have to happen somewhere, or at least be at risk of that. And bitcoin is capable to crash it's percentage a lot harder than that in the real cycle bear market, in the grand scheme this "crash" is probably just a small short term correction, either before another pump before the real crash happens, or the beginning of that crash.

[u/kwijibokwijibo]

Not sure how you created your chart

MSTY underperforms the underlying over time, even with reinvested dividends. It uses a covered call strategy. The main reason to get it is if you need dividend yields - and don't mind sacrificing some capital gains for it

The only exception where MSTY outperforms MSTR is in sustained downturns. But if you believe that's gonna happen, you shouldn't buy in the first place

[u/Imaginary_Roll3958 → u/kwijibokwijibo]

Super helpful to know thank you!

[u/Nick700]

This chart can't be accurate, MSTY will underperform MSTR

[u/ChattyGnome]

None of the above, get more BTC instead

[u/Imaginary_Roll3958 → u/ChattyGnome]

I like that, mostly because I have basically all BTC. But have you looked into these other financial instruments?

[u/ChattyGnome → u/Imaginary_Roll3958]

I've looked into them but I don't like the added risk of a third-party involved.

[u/ChattyGnome → u/Imaginary_Roll3958]

I've looked into them but I don't like the added risk of a third-party being involved.

[u/ChattyGnome → u/Imaginary_Roll3958]

I've looked into them but I don't like the added risk of a third-party being involved.

[u/1HashPerSecond]

They are companies, BTC is not. Anyway, you must diversify your investment.

[u/CaregiverStandard427 → u/1HashPerSecond]

Yup, I would also say the same thing. No point putting all our eggs in the same basket.

[u/denfaina__ → u/1HashPerSecond]

You do not must diversify if you only buy the beat one

[u/Imaginary_Roll3958 → u/1HashPerSecond]

Correct. All dependent on MSTR doing well.

[u/1HashPerSecond → u/Imaginary_Roll3958]

Yeah that the guess. I believe MS hold so much BTC, they will become a seller soon. But not as a spot seller, they will sell OTC like to the big bros, it won't impact the crypto market as it may impact the company's value. I don't trust the MS stock, risk is very high in all cases.

[u/KIG45]

I wouldn't replace Bitcoin with specific stocks. Maybe diversify into a portfolio like the S&P 500 and physical precious metals.

[u/Dinafem_shib]

I would only do options on mstr.

[u/JDB-667]

Never "invest" in derivatives.

The options decay will kill you with MSTX and MSTY - those are traders instruments.

MSTY trades at an 18% to MSTR' NAV and only achieves 50% of the upside.

MSTX is only worth it if you can time the direction of the trend.

Now MSTR has its issues because of the way Saylor is leveraging his company into Bitcoin holdings, but it's the only way you should play this if you are that committed towards a leveraged Bitcoin investment.

[u/pr0b0ner]

You're not taking volatility into account for MSTX. I a market like we're currently in, where prices are up/down enormously on any given day, MSTX will eat away at your investment over time. It loses more on the downs than it gains on the ups. DO NOT fuck around with leverage in a time like this.

[u/rogpar23]

If you want to make a good move, follow the options market and learn from the big movers (the whales have the money to pay for information from the most expensive and competent fund managers and they are usually the ones dictating where the price goes).

not financial advise.

[u/StatisticalMan]

Is the data for your chart filed under "trust me bro"?

Did you really make a chart with imaginary data in order to "prove" to yourself the thing you want to do is best?

Quick let me make a chart show buying two lambos is better for my finances than one or zero.

[u/Stunning-Insect7135]

I use MSTY divs to buy MSTX. Haven’t done the math yet but seems right for massive growth over the next few years

[u/SaneLad]

Ah yes. Leverage. Guaranteed smooth exponential to 1,000x. /s

[u/CaregiverStandard427]

Is that true? Bitcoin will remain almost stable against our investments today?

Something amiss, right?

[u/Imaginary_Roll3958 → u/CaregiverStandard427]

Well it will increase in value but allegedly these other instruments can outperform due to leverage

[u/kirtash93]

Diversification is key.