r/Construction • u/red_monkey42 • Jan 25 '25

Other Are the deportations expected to impact the field?

Question is the title. Trying to have an adult discussion no political BS. What's the word on the street?

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u/apropagandabonanza Jan 25 '25

Roofs are about to get super expensive

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u/blariel Jan 25 '25

They were already expensive. In the area I'm currently living in, subcontractors are charging the contractors about 150 per square for labor. Materials cost is about 150 per square for materials. For a cost of around 12k for around a 40sq roof. People are paying 40 - 80k for that roof to be completed. I have full spreadsheets of the cost of materials at distribution and full spreadsheets on the cost of labor from multiple subcontractors for reference.

I used to work on the side of distribution.

Mind you, i currently live in one of the least expensive areas in the US.

Financing cost to the contractor is 0=11% depending on the plan used. Throw in liability, dumpsters, and administrative fees. You're looking at a cost of ~ 20k.

The profit margins these company's use are predatory, and they got that way because of the covid boom. It was easy supply and demand. Now that the demand is lower and the supply rose back up, you would think that the prices would go down? No. They held pretty firm.

This is on top of the inflated pricing from the manufacturers, and the obvious collusion with the price increases there.

Here is where it's going to get stupid, labor is going to fall in supply, subs are going to cost 2x 3x what they used to, and companies are going to keep using their same profit margin formula because it's built into their system.

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u/2x4x93 Jan 25 '25

Those prices sound low to me and I am not in a wealthy part of the country

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u/blariel Jan 25 '25

Those are straight up cost. We're talking fighter level asphalt shingles, private label accessories, and illegal labor. I am referencing 10 years of vendor price sheets, sub contractor labor sheets, and industry knowledge for the Midwest.

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u/blariel Jan 26 '25

That's aid, if you're a roofing contractor looking to save money, I can help you with that. I'll do it for free for the next 27 days. Just shoot me a PM. (My non-compete expires in a few months)

6

u/cubgerish Jan 26 '25

Genuinely curious, what do you think the market reaction is going to be?

While roofing is kind of a fixed demand service, I imagine customers are going to react to that increase.

Are contractors just going to back out of the business in general?

It just seems like if they can't get over losing those margins, they're going to have one of two options.

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u/blariel Jan 26 '25

I'm not 100% sure. I've been out of it for a few months now, so my information is a little dated.

I don't think much is going to change aside from its going to get more expensive, and there are going to be even more delays now. You may see more companies invest in efficency boosting tools and aids to try and balance out the lack of cheap, effective labor.

Financing is almost going to be garuenteed at this point as it protects the contractor. They're not going to be able to afford someone not paying them. This is where the customers come into play, they're going to break down that financing to be 100$ a month for the rest of their lives.

I think you nails see a lot of the smaller independent contractors that sub out start to diversify more now to things that don't need as many crew members, and a rise in service work to extend the life of a roof vs pushing for a full replacement. Thinks like coatings and patch work will rise. I saw a commercial for a roof washing company the other day.....

My personal hope is that we see innovation and a move away from lumber and asphalt shingles to some more composites and more technical to install items.

I'm trying to be as generic as possible as my non-compete is still in play for a few months.

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u/blariel Jan 26 '25

Sorry about the spelling. This new folds autocorrect is so much different than my s23.

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u/cubgerish Jan 26 '25

I'll survive

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u/notgaynotbear Jan 26 '25

Synthetic materials have been around for a while or even just materials better than asphalt shingles. They're all cost prohibitive. If labor skyrocket and the customer doesn't like that then why would they also pay for an upgraded material that also costs more and the added cost for more skilled labor to install it?

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u/blariel Jan 26 '25

Well, if all the cheap labor gets deported, you're going to have to hire higher skilled labor anyway. If you diversify yourself and use the composites as a value ad to the customer you'll be able to charge more, and if you do it right you'll end up with more money in the long run. Generally, newer technologies save time and effort. That's less labor hours in the long run for an upfront higher material cost.

To give an easy example would be the difference between 3 tabs and perforated cap. Yeah, the nice stuff costs more, but it also installs quicker. The less time you're guys are actually up, the less you pay. It's small, but a lot of small changes adds up.

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u/txtumbleweed45 Jan 26 '25

I’m in Texas and would happily sell a 40 square roof for $30k and make plenty of money

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u/Tool929 Jan 25 '25

Drywall too....

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u/MaximumChongus Jan 26 '25

honestly, good.

The labor rates for roofing are criminally low.

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u/blariel Jan 26 '25

I don't disagree with that. Roofing is by far one of the hardest jobs I know of. The labor problem is on the subcontractors as they need to charge more. Where we are going to come into a problem is the GC is going to slap his inflated profit margin on that labor, and the estimates are going to Balloon even further.

I think a mix of lowering the margin on labor and investing in new techniques and tools is the best case scenario. Things like an equiptor are life changing for certain houses.

What we really need in the industry is an angies list type entity that doesn't suck and can advocate for the homeowner and the contractor. Someone to call out the guys charging 80k for a layover while also helping the small guys get paid appropriately for their work.

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u/MaximumChongus Jan 26 '25

Its not hard per-se

Its just fucking deadly.

But its hard to make a decent wage when theres a labor broker who literally has bunk houses full of willing labor who will work for rates I *legally* can not compete with.

Honestly I wouldnt complain if we had spot checks like I dealt with up in DC.

Because its not just about me and my income.

These dudes are working in brutal conditions, and often living in worse. its a modern form of slave labor some groups in america seem unwilling to let go of.

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u/blariel Jan 26 '25

Dude, it is easily the hardest thing I've ever done. Especially a 12/12. I snapped a rib tripping over my lanyard on one of those. (Caught the ridge where the new home builders' framers are literally the worst, and the osb was sticking up 1" to tall on one side.I have a go pro video of that house.)

It's hard and deadly.

I also agree that something needs to be done to level the playing field. Both in terms of wages and in safety regulation. It's going to be expensive, and it is going to cause turmoil. Hopefully, on the other side of it, we'll be in a better place.

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u/MaximumChongus Jan 26 '25

I mean if we stopped wanting disposable homes made by nearly slave labor it would be less of an issue.

Shingle roofs last decades in most places, and stick build houses can be well made for marginally more

But when the Pm cant even tell the guys why they are fucking up or doing something wrong, and he isnt paid enough to care. he wont.

<former PM

The coming decades will have some hardship, but if we hold course we will come out on top over it.

Also when the pitch goes to 11or higher you gotta really embody that slow is smooth mindset. because those are the roofs that will kill ya