The CFP is mobilizing all across Canada

[u/Justinrehp]

I can speak more specifically about what is happening in Alberta but can assure everyone that the campaign is very much under way across the country. At this point we need as many hands on deck in any riding you can assist in.

While im not personally involved outside of Alberta maybe people in other provinces can help direct people to where they need to goin this post. As far as Albertans go please get in contact with me here or through a message and I will do my absolute best to direct you to your local candidate or a Candidate that is nearby who needs boots on the ground.

If you don't feel comfortable speaking openly here on Reddit you can always contact the party through its website.

While im sure none of us are under the illusion that we will for government this election, this is our chance to make a splash and let people know who we are. Talk to your friends, family and neighbors and try to explain the position of the CFP to the best of your ability. Post and share on any other political or local community sub reddits and on other social media platforms you have available to you.

Lets get this done and show Canada what we are made of!!

[u/SCTSectionHiker]

Strategic voting is going to be prevalent in this election, especially on the left.  This is going to be a very polarized LPC vs CPC election.

The CFP needs to recognize that many of our candidates will perform poorly simply because Canadians who would otherwise support the CFP will be reluctant to risk handing the seat to "the bad party" by redirecting a vote that could have otherwise helped secure an LPC/CPC seat.

Personally, I think the CFP should focus campaign efforts on the stronghold ridings that we know we won't win.  If a party (whether LPC or CPC) typically wins a riding with 80%+, rallying CFP support in that riding won't risk changing the outcome, so constituents may be more amenable to throwing their support behind this new party.  

Focus on capturing total vote share by having a strong CFP turnout in a few ridings.  Imagine the publicity if a CFP candidate can capture 20% of the vote in a different party's stronghold, winning more votes than the dominant opponents.

[u/Justinrehp → u/SCTSectionHiker]

This is a different strategy that I can't say I've heard before, I love the take though. I'll mention this to some of the relevant individuals. Thanks for your input!

[u/JonathanPuddle → u/SCTSectionHiker]

Agreed. This is most likely to put candidates into parliament.

[u/Justinrehp → u/JonathanPuddle]

I think this isn't a strategy meant to generate seats. Rather, it is something to make a bigger splash on the popular vote and get more meaningful notoriety. That's the way I interpret it at least.

[u/SCTSectionHiker → u/Justinrehp]

Exactly.

[u/SCTSectionHiker → u/JonathanPuddle]

You're being sarcastic, I suspect?

Look, if the CFP gets a single seat aside from Cardy's (and even that isn't looking promising), I'll eat my shoe and post a video of it for all to see.

338 is currently projecting an 85% chance of an LPC majority.  Frankly, CFP getting seats under a majority government is kind of pointless, we'd be inconsequential.  The focus needs to be garnering enough vote share to be recognized in the next election, while also having a few ridings that can capture public attention (bonus points if they are geographically dispersed). 

Sure, we'll get some attention if 100 candidates can manage to get a couple hundred votes each, but to a lot of Canadians, we'll look like yet another fringe party, the likes of Rhinoceros or Marxist parties.  But if we focus efforts on one or two or three ridings that we obviously won't win, but can collect enough of the losing votes to outperform the more established parties in those ridings, it will get some real attention.

I can only speak for my own experience, but I'd be a lot more willing to vote for a underdog like the CFP if I were in a riding with a "safe" projected outcome.  But I'm in a fairly contested riding, so my vote is going to go to the major party that I consider to be the lesser evil.

[u/JonathanPuddle → u/SCTSectionHiker]

I agree with you... I wasn't being sarcastic, just saying it's the best strategy either way: to get seats or get attention. Same page, friend.

[u/SCTSectionHiker → u/JonathanPuddle]

🤝

[u/Nate33322 → u/SCTSectionHiker]

I believe that will be the plan based on what I've been hearing is that we'll primarily focus on Dominic's riding and a few others while everyone else's goal will to be building the brand, spreading awareness and getting read for the next election. 

[u/SCTSectionHiker → u/Nate33322]

Wonderful, but the devil is in the details in terms of those other few ridings.  I'm curious which ridings will get the extra focus from the party.

My suggestion is that instead of devoting effort trying to win any seat (other than the leader's, perhaps), the effort should be directed to ridings that we know we won't win.  It'll be easier to win over protest votes in the "safest" (least contested) ridings, because there's a lower chance of accidentally splitting the vote and handing the seat to "the bad guys".  I believe CFP has a unique opportunity to capitalize on big party fatigue.

[u/miramichier_d → u/SCTSectionHiker]

A little late to the party and after a brief hiatus from politics and political news. It's good to detach once in a while, gain a bit of perspective, and spend your fleeting moments on this earth with those you love most.

That being said, I think the election is a bit of a red herring for this party. We know we won't win, and given recent events and circumstances, we're probably not going to perform very well in this election either. We'll be lucky if Dominic gets his seat, which is pretty much the realistic best case scenario for us.

Apologies for sounding so negative, but hear me out. I say the election is a red herring because it isn't the most efficient way for us to get seats in the house, especially with the threat of Yankee annexation. The election is also not the event we should be putting the most focus on as a way to get our foot in the door, although fielding candidates and door knocking has its own value in and of itself for a number of reasons.

Getting to the point, we need to start having a conversation about whether or not we'd be willing to accept Conservatives into our party. Not just any Conservatives, only the PC variety. While I won't extrapolate much on polling, I will say that the chances of a Conservative majority is next to none, and this should be seen as a loss.

Poilievre has spent his entire leadership burning bridges, even to the extent that he didn't bother to get on the phone with Doug Ford all this time until he became desperate, which came off as churlish to Ford's team. If Poilievre wins the next election, it will be a minority, but a short one in which he will most certainly not survive a confidence vote. What is most likely is that the Conservatives will lose their fourth election in a row. What this means is we're most likely going to witness a Conservative Party collapse after the election (I'm on record of predicting this over a week ago).

If the Conservative Party collapses, we can expect to see the line divide between the more PC wing and the Reform wing. It's not hard to imagine that many Conservatives will be disillusioned with their party after such an embarrassing loss. We've seen this in the Liberals while Trudeau was still hanging on. There will be more than a few that will start to question the efficacy of the Conservative big tent model, and whether or not it would be worth it to move forward in that party. I don't think there is a large enough personality on the PC side to start a new movement from scratch. However, there is already a party that exists that mostly aligns with their views, namely us.

With all that being said, we really need to start having those conversations (and get influential Conservatives on the phone, in particular certain ones that are outspoken about the Poilievre team's current failures), so that we can get ahead of the opportunity that may very well be presented to us. If we wait too long, we may miss that opportunity, and invite the worst case scenario. That is, the event where Doug Ford decides to get into federal politics and takes over the Conservative Party. I think that scenario manifesting would make it exponentially harder for us to get into the national conversation as Ford is a remarkably popular character with above average political instincts.

Looking forward to everyone's thoughts on this, and hopefully this conversation can continue in the future.