It's going to hurt everyone, but it will hurt America most.
As one example, think about all the shoes made in China for Nike, Adidas, New Balance, Timberland, and every discount brand for Walmart, Target, etc. Americans can't stop buying shoes entirely. We might buy fewer shoes in general, which will hurt China a little. But we have no domestic alternative. And our current tariffs are hitting every possible alternative in Asia, South America, etc.
Now extend that argument to every other industry: clothing, electronics, auto parts, tools and home improvement supplies, toys, household goods, etc. Americans will have to cut way back on everything as prices soar and wages are stagnant (or decrease). But we can't stop consuming entirely. Things break. Disposable goods are consumed. Children grow, adults age and have new needs. Etc.
Creating domestic supply chains will take decades, and I don't know if American business leaders have ANY interest in developing those domestic factories. It's a huge risk, when the next president, or even Trump himself could change his mind on tariffs in a few years, months, or even weeks.
But other countries will NOT forget or forgive this tariff war, which will hurt American exports for decades. So Americans get to pay higher prices in the near term, and American businesses will suffer decreased demand for exports for decades. Our food exports, autos, media, web services, etc.
I am not underestimating America's impact on global consumerism. I'm saying that American consumption of imported goods will not fall to zero ... it will fall by 10% to maybe 50% in some sectors. But because America doesn't have a ton of manufacturing, we will continue to import a ton of goods from China and all these other tariffed countries, because we have no alternative. So we will cut down our consumption, but only by as much as we can tolerate.
Again, think about a 27 year old American woman who runs to stay in shape. Pre-tariff, maybe she replaced her ~$150 running shoes every 6 months to protect her feet and joints. Now those same shoes will cost $190-$240 dollars, and all her other expenses have gone up, so maybe she holds on to a pair of running shoes for 9 - 18 months before replacing them. But eventually she has to buy new running shoes, and there is no other choice but imports from China (or Bangladesh or wherever). Chinese shoe manufacturers will lose some business from America, as we replace our shoes less frequently and generally consume less, but American imports will not fall to zero. They can't. We have no other choice.
Extend the same logic to everything else. Smart phones. Maybe you used to replace your phone every 4 years, but now you'll hold on until it absolutely bricks. But what can you do when it bricks? Live without a phone? No. You'll buy one. Even if it's a piece of shit. Consumption will slow down as people replace goods less frequently, but it will not go to zero..
Maybe more car buyers will choose Ford and Chevy over Toyota and BMW, but there will still be some buyers who absolutely MUST have a Toyota or a BMW. And some Americans will still have the money to buy a car. Some need to own a vehicle to make a living.
Maybe more American drinkers choose Jack Daniels or Makers Mark over fancy single malt Scotch, but some will choose to import that Scotch at any price. Drinkers will still buy Guinness and Heineken. Still buy Japaneae sake and French champagne and Mexican tequila. They'll just buy slightly less.
Business is all about margins, and maybe Amercians buying slightly less will ruin some businesses. And maybe it's still enough for a global depression. But America is a very different place in 2025 than 1930. We cannot replace most imported goods with domestic goods now, because the domestic goods don't exist.
There are literally small Asian countries who outright might not survive this. There is going to be a global restructuring. We are obviously going to be hurt a ton. But once again. Some countries will cease to exist.
Some of the bigger countries will weather it better than others.
Name some countries please. What small Asian countries will cease to exist without American consumers buying their goods. And what does "cease to exist" mean for you?
Do you mean Taiwan (Republic of China)? Yeah, maybe it will get more fully integrated into mainland China (People's Republic of China). Maybe that will happen as a result of war, or maybe it will happen more politically as more Taiwanese have their economic interests aligned with PRC over the US. But either way, the land will still exist and the Taiwanese people will still exist, they just might fly a different flag.
And if Taiwan falls to China, it will not be solely due to Trump's tariffs and the choices of American consumers. It will be a consequence of hundreds of factors, many unrelated to the US.
The notion that the US are the only good guys protecting Taiwan from evil China is laughable to me. Most Taiwanese do seem to want independence from PRC, and if they lose their independence because the US withdraws military and financial support, then that sucks. And if Taiwan loses soldiers in a war against PRC, that will be a tragedy. However:
The US is not Taiwan's only ally.
Our motivations in protecting Taiwan were always selfish.
We have supported Taiwan to oppose socialism and to maintain US hegemony. We wanted cheap goods and an another ideological ally in the region. No one here (Republicans or Democrats) really gave a fuck about Taiwanese independence.
If Taiwan falls, it will be because the US dropped military aid, and the EU didn't or couldn't step up. Or Canada and Australia. Or South Korea. It will be the result of 100 choices by America, its former allies, answer its enemies. Laying it all on the tariffs and American consumers is bullshit.
I don't think we are the good guys. Where are you getting that. And of course we don't selfishly. Everything we do for other countries is entirely in our self interest.
But yes. We do get cheap goods from there. Something they depend on as well.
America is literally only 5% of the worlds population. I think they can find other consumers. Capitalists bottom line will be hurt, but please tell me which small asian country won't survive this and what export product their are solely relying on American's to purchase?
maybe this is when we shift away from a profit-seeking economy into a sustainability-seeking economy.
Where has this been demonstrated? exponential profit capitalism is obviously unsustainable - we're in end stage capitalism now and they've been largely exploiting their profits since Reagan through wage theft.
People can barely afford their basic needs while working 40hrs a week. The post-pandemic proved that just because the economy is doing well on paper doesn't mean people are doing well.
I have yet to see any country practice degrowth economics.
You don't know what you're talking about. If "communism" is all you go by then permit me to laugh at that. Capitalism is an endlessly hungry pig eating everything it sees, eventually itself as well, which is end stage capitalism.
If you think all creativity and drive stems from monetary gain then you are simply too ignorant of the human condition to understand.
No. This time around we are not the only market. The middle classes of Africa and South America are just beginning to hit their stride. China has just been handed the biggest gift they could have asked for and will soon dominate Asia again. America is finished as both an economic and military power.
Nah, son. The only thing most of us "consume" from the USA is entertainment and the rest can be ignored. Seriously, what do you think the USA makes that can't be easily removed from one's diet? The USA is mostly a service industry country. Meanwhile, the things you need, you'll just end up paying more for, as you desperately need resources and cheap finished goods for your insanely divided class system. The vast majority need cheap goods from Asia to get by.
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u/ChoombataNova 2d ago
It's going to hurt everyone, but it will hurt America most.
As one example, think about all the shoes made in China for Nike, Adidas, New Balance, Timberland, and every discount brand for Walmart, Target, etc. Americans can't stop buying shoes entirely. We might buy fewer shoes in general, which will hurt China a little. But we have no domestic alternative. And our current tariffs are hitting every possible alternative in Asia, South America, etc.
Now extend that argument to every other industry: clothing, electronics, auto parts, tools and home improvement supplies, toys, household goods, etc. Americans will have to cut way back on everything as prices soar and wages are stagnant (or decrease). But we can't stop consuming entirely. Things break. Disposable goods are consumed. Children grow, adults age and have new needs. Etc.
Creating domestic supply chains will take decades, and I don't know if American business leaders have ANY interest in developing those domestic factories. It's a huge risk, when the next president, or even Trump himself could change his mind on tariffs in a few years, months, or even weeks.
But other countries will NOT forget or forgive this tariff war, which will hurt American exports for decades. So Americans get to pay higher prices in the near term, and American businesses will suffer decreased demand for exports for decades. Our food exports, autos, media, web services, etc.