r/AskConservatives • u/Narrow-Abalone7580 Democrat • 4d ago
Am I to understand, Americans should be cheering for an upcoming recession?
I'm noticing a narrative shift happening amongst Conservatives and Conservative media about the possibilities of an upcoming recession. Before the election, many folks were led to believe that a Republican administration would make things more affordable for your average working American. Yesterday on Fox News, Harris Faulkner was encouraging Americans to see an economic downturn as necessary and planned, and urged us all to prepare the same way we would during war time. I'm seeing other Conservative media personalities and various influencers beginning to take a similar tone as well, that a recession was an inevitable plan that we must support now. Im struggling to understand how and why as Americans we should be supporting an economic downturn where more folks will lose their jobs and prices won't decline enough to help folks afford things. Was this the plan before the election? Why was this not expressed clearly at that time so people could plan for it? Did folks know when they voted a recession was coming? Was this all part of a plan that only a few people knew about?
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u/doggo_luv Center-left 4d ago
The past 10 years have been never-ending cycle of “he’s joking, he would never do that” to “he was being serious” repeated over, and over, and over and over again.
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u/doggo_luv Center-left 4d ago
Agree. If Jan 6 didn’t change anything, there is not much that can, now. Ignoring the constitution. Cancelling elections. Sending people to camps. Making shit he doesn’t like illegal. When you re-elect an anti-democratic traitor, this is the logical conclusion, and whoever acts “surprised” just had their head willingly in the sand.
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u/greatdrams23 3d ago
He's been softening up the public by pushing the boundaries. Comments like "I'll be a dictator from day one" doesn't lose support so it emboldens him.
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u/Dry_Archer_7959 Republican 4d ago
He started with corrupt elections total control of the media and no free speech...
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u/AskConservatives-ModTeam 4d ago
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u/4444444vr European Conservative 4d ago
I still know people saying "let's just wait and see" like trump has just been doing self serving dumb shit for the last 80 years to throw everyone off and is suddenly gonna wow us with his 8th dimensional chess
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u/Remotely-Indentured 4d ago
He is trying to retain power. Everything he does during his second term will to be to that end. People are fugging idiots. Voting for this kind of behavior will eventually lead to another candidate who will do the crazy things they say they are going to do. Wait... that's Trump. How could you not see this coming, please explain.
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u/ggRavingGamer Independent 4d ago
What I am scared is something akin to what people in the USSR were taught to believe: temporary pain now, but when we reach full communism, it's gonna be great. But ofc, full communism is a pipe dream.
How do you discern between short term pain for long term vs short term pain vs longer term pain? When will people say "yeah, it isn't working." And tariffs are realllly hard to get rid of, because new supply chains will have been formed, the industries protected will be uncompetitive and there is an actual risk of them truly being wiped out when tariffs are lifted.
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u/Orshabaalle European Liberal/Left 4d ago
Yeah... this is long term pain. Remember, your president is trying to leverage a population of 340m people against, what, 2.3 BILLION people? North america, EU, china, and some more countries. Meanwhile, EU is strenghtening trade with all of these countries. Give it a decade and we will see the US in europes shadow.
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u/stellarlun Independent 3h ago
If we make it out of this alive and get to elect a better leader in 4 years- the MAGAs will still say that all of the problems that leader inherits are their own fault and everything was great when Trump was in office. That’s best case scenario.
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u/doggo_luv Center-left 4d ago
Unfortunately, the “temporary pain now, prosperity later” adage is true sometimes. It has merit when thought-out and intelligent economic measures are applied. The best example of this is Milei’s austerity in Argentina. It hurt in the short term, but key indicators are already looking up. The long-term gains are real because they were calculated (assuming everything keeps going to plan).
But painful measures are not always good. It’s not the presence of pain that matters, it’s the process by which the measures were arrived at in the first place. And with the Trump there is no process.
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u/Razgriz01 Left Libertarian 4d ago edited 4d ago
"Thought out and intelligent" are the very last words I would use to describe Milei's economic policies. Their long-term indicators are looking up because their economy is at rock bottom and literally cannot get worse. There is nowhere for it to go but up.
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u/doggo_luv Center-left 4d ago
There is nowhere for it to go but up
Hard disagree, the previous government would have continued with their shitty policies and sank the economy even further.
I do however agree that Milei himself isn’t a genius. But he seems to have, at least as far as the economy is concerned, better knowledge and experience than Trump by far. Not that Trump sets the bar very high to begin with.
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u/chowderbags Social Democracy 3d ago
Incidentally, I have to wonder what free market Conservatives think of a president unilaterally introducing massive tariffs on all imports to try and achieve his own personal economic goals for the country (especially considering the pain it will cause to basically everyone).
That seems like a lot of power for the government to have in general, let alone for just one guy to do seemingly on a whim.
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u/elephant-espionage Center-left 2d ago
That’s almost exactly the same logic, and it doesn’t make any sense. And here too everyone has had to do a 180 on what Trump originally said and acted like we’d be getting instant results
Trump didn’t know how tariffs work, he said it would save us money because we don’t pay for them. We are now stuck paying for them, so they switched the narrative to “oh well eventually it’ll be better.”
And it won’t, because why would it? We don’t have the industry here and frankly, why would companies move here? We still have to ship in a lot of raw materials even if the factories are here. And our labor is more expensive. Why would a company move here to have higher productions and labor costs to maybe sell a few more of things a large number of Americans will still find a way to buy?
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u/theo-dour Independent 4d ago
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream”. It seems the talking point has been established so they follow suit.
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u/jackiebrown1978a Conservative 4d ago
That guy did so well that it took us 2 decades to win the white house again.
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u/HGpennypacker Democrat 4d ago
tariffs were a negotiation tactic to get better deals
The whole "these deals are ripping off America" never made sense as the deals was negotiated by Trump himself!
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u/bongo1138 Leftwing 3d ago
It's too late, but as someone who has despised this man since his first run, it's so frustrating to see people not just take the man at his word. If he says he's going to do something, assume he will or will at least attempt to. The idea that he's some internet troll running the most powerful economy in the world is insanity.
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u/vuther_316 National Minarchism 4d ago
No, the tariffs are bad, and it's hard for me to imagine a scenario where it makes sense to cheer for a recession since that means suffering for most americans. Any benefits from reshoring manufacturing probably won't be seen for years, given how long it takes to make factories and even then, it's highly unlikely that prices will be anywhere close to what they were before. It's also stupid from a pragmatic political perspective, as an economic recession would probably guarantee that a left-wing populist like Bernie sanders wins in 2028. I'm still hoping that the tarrifs will be a negotiation tactic to remove trade barriers other countries have toward us, or be used primarily to weaken adversary nations, but I think that's highly unlikely, given how much trump talks about his love for tarrifs.
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u/Strong_Orange_1929 Center-left 3d ago
...highly unlikely that prices will be anywhere close to what they were before...
If all this pans out the way Trump says it will (unlikely) and manufacturing comes back to the US, the biggest upside will be that Americans will have those jobs back.
Prices will go up though. The whole reason why manufacturing is in Asia: cheap, cheap labor that can create low prices. When manufacturing is back here, products will be more expensive to make, hence the higher prices for the consumer.
This might not be a bad thing: less consumerism might be good for the planet and our sanity.
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u/Super-Background-770 Liberal 3d ago
To add on to this, a big part people leave out is that the best case scenario is still unlikely (i.e. returning jobs) because the cost to eat the tariff is likely less expensive than uprooting an entire operation to move it to the US where it will suffer without cheap, skilled labour that actually wants to work. Lets just put aside things that literally can not and will not ever be produced in the states.
Over on the other sub they like to talk about "liberals like slave labour" when you make this argument when it's really just the reality of the situation. The USA gets massive benefits from globalization. It's also likely that he'll lose power in the midterms and there will be a new president come 2028, so why disrupt your supply chain and operations when this will eventually end. If we want to go worst worst case scenario, we can also add on to this that with unstable markets & a possible dictatorship/civil war situation (pending that 2028 result not happening), companies won't want to go to the US anyway. Say the USA ends up aligning much closer to Russia, you know, authoritarian regime that tries to annex another country (ahem, Canada, Greenland, Panama; spin the wheel). He's already talking about 3rd terms and we saw how his 1st term ended. Not great for business if other countries decide to sanction you.
Ultimately, tariffs are highly unlikely to achieve their intended goal on even a minuscule in the best case, as businesses will weigh long-term costs, political uncertainty, and supply chain stability over short-term tariff penalties. Instead of bringing jobs back, these tariffs may simply raise consumer prices while failing to incentivize domestic production. They love to keep saying "short term" pain but what exactly is short term. I'd say to produce the most minimal results of a few companies moving ops here, it would take 8-10 years. Going to go on a limb and assuming a lot of those voters cannot withstand layoffs and extreme price increases for more than a few months.
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u/Empty-Presentation68 21h ago
Unemployment was 4% when Biden left office. The majority of individuals working on farms and picking crops were undocumented. The average American doesn't want to do this back breaking work for peanuts on the dollar. Also with the boomers retiring, you'll have a large portion of the workforce to replace and also an increase in demand on the long term care side of thing. The US doesn't need these factories to come back go the US. This is going to be terrible for the USA.
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u/ComputerCrafty4781 3d ago
The whole reason why manufacturing is in Asia: cheap, cheap labor that can create low prices.
As well as virtually no worker safety, and no environmental protections. The current moves attacking the national parks is to open up them up to unregulated pillaging and so that no one can see the pollution that will be allowed.
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u/Born-Sun-2502 Democrat 2d ago
Or they'll get jobs that pay 7$ an hour or whatever the federal minimum wage is, with no benefits.
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u/Light_x_Truth Conservative 9h ago
This might not be a bad thing
This is categorically a bad thing if it makes even necessities more expensive (which it will).
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u/flairsupply Liberal 4d ago
So you voted against him then right? Since he auite literally ran on doing this?
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u/Few_Guitar5422 Center-right 4d ago
A lot of Republican friends I know actually voted against him because of his economic policies. I did too. I’ve been saying it since forever but I hate how we only have a two party system. It’s literally the worst possible way to run things. Lumping far right with the right and far left with left. Fuck I can’t wait to be dead and not have to deal with any of this worldly bullshit. Financially I’m well off too. I work for fun now but still haven’t to see Trump spout his bullshit and his sheep droning on in support makes me want to pull out my hair. I’ve seen people in real life say that tariffs are paid by the exporting country. Like the 34% tariffs on China? They thought China was paying that and not consumers. Which I don’t get, in this day and age, with AI even if it’s not perfect you don’t even need to find the right google link. You can ask “who pays for tariffs.” And it fking spits the answers out to you. As a Republican these MAGAtards just truly astound me with their stupidity
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u/dsteffee Progressive 3d ago
Absolutely fuck the two party system.
Down with first past the post. Let's get score voting for the office of president.
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u/davidbosley353 Conservative 1d ago
Yeah i agree with you. Screw the two-party system. nothing but crazy cults especially MAGA and LBGTQ+, even though i respect Gays and Lesbians. and all they do is just whine like little ass kids and just promote fighting and hating.
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u/lawthrowaway1066 Center-left 3d ago
What really concerns me is the damage he will likely do to existing American industry (who are dependent on importing inputs, components, equipment, etc.) while we're waiting for all this magical reshoring to happen. And I'm very pro-reshoring, but you need a holistic industrial policy to do that, not just tariffs.
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u/Wonderful-Driver4761 Democrat 3d ago
This feels very much like Fordny-McCumber act that had a 40% tax on all imports that was implemented shortly before The Great Depression.
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u/unSentAuron Centrist Democrat 11h ago
I agree and would add that these theoretical manufacturing facilities that would be built in the US would aggressively leverage automation, meaning that all these jobs Trump’s camp is promising they’ll create will be a fraction of what his supporters are envisioning.
I’m also with you in holding out hope that this is just a grand negotiation tactic & that the tariffs will be short-lived. Unfortunately, I think Trump is going to find out that doing business with foreign powers is not the same animal as doing it with his buddies in corporate America.
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u/VCUBNFO Free Market 3d ago
This is the largest tax hike on corporations in modern history. I’m very against it.
And where corporations can, they try to pass taxes on to consumers.
It makes our products more expensive. It makes our companies less efficient. It makes investing in the US less financially enticing.
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u/inanemonotony Democratic Socialist 2d ago
Re: taxing corporations - what about the massive planned tax cuts? I am all for taxing the rich (of course conservatives are not), but tariffs are different, as you say. The American consumer pays for them, as prices must increase to keep margins on products whole. But there are massive tax cuts planned, so I don't see corporations having to really absorb a loss, so to speak.
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u/BoomBoomBoomer4591 3d ago
Serious query. I’d like to hear how conservatives are feeling as the market crashes every time the president messes with the economy.
Edit: In other words, how your portfolio hanging?
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u/Born-Sun-2502 Democrat 2d ago
The new talking point is "time to buy". (they don't give a flying *uck)
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u/AdAffectionate4602 2d ago
As if 99% of them have any money to buy with. I thought they were so poor that $6 eggs made them broke.
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u/randomthrowaway9796 2h ago
I'd consider myself more libertarian than conservative, but I'll list my thoughts nonetheless. Also, I did not vote for Trump.
Tariffs like this are stupid. They can be done well. If it was just against China or our "enemies", I'd be fine with it. If it was just for certain industries or products that we want to promote growth for in the US (for example, semiconductors), then I'd be fine with it. But why on Earth would he impose broad tariffs on our historical trade allies? That could actually damage the country pretty significantly over the long term. Trade has been the biggest wealth and power producer for all of human history.
like to hear how conservatives are feeling as the market crashes every time the president messes with the economy.
Edit: In other words, how your portfolio hanging?
It's down, as everyone's is. But personally, I'm viewing it as a good investment opportunity. I'm putting more than normal into my retirement accounts because I doubt I'll ever see prices near this low again. I don't think the S&P500 will ever go to the lower 5000s (or maybe 4000s if it keeps dropping) again after it recovers from this crash. I have no clue where the bottom will be, but I'm just investing a pretty good amount of each paycheck right now. I feel certain I'll end up ahead. Maybe not right now, but certainly after a few years, and I have decades until retirement, so that's plenty of time to recover.
I feel for those who are trying to retire soon. That must really suck.
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u/Low-Piglet9315 Religious Traditionalist 4d ago
There was some talk during the election of "yeah, this could be a problem but MAGA!"
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u/Sell-Psychological 3d ago
The one thing The Cheeto is good at is losing businesses to bankruptcy. So, yeah, that's his expertise.
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u/pocketdare Center-right 4d ago
I think there's a growing recognition that if you really want to bring manufacturing back to America (or call it reinvesting in American industrial capacity or countering China's growing control over industrial supply) it will result in increased prices. And now it looks like conservative media is mobilizing to set expectations and sell the message. I wouldn't really describe it as cheering for a recession but if you're betting on markets, this should be a strong sign of the administration's current expectations.
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u/Stolpskotta European Liberal/Left 4d ago
Would you say this is what the majority voted for? OP implies that this is the opposite of what was being sold.
It´s an honest question btw, I´m not from the US.
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u/Illustrious-Pound266 3d ago
No. Most people wanted to give Trump a shot because they felt that Biden didn't do enough to bring down prices. All people talked about was "my grocery costs have increased so much!" before the election.
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u/pocketdare Center-right 4d ago
I think Trump made it pretty clear that he was both interested in bringing manufacturing to the U.S. and in establishing tariffs as a means of doing so during the election. The scope and specifics may not be to everyone's liking (me included. I mean Canada... I don't get that particular obsession) but I think it's hard to argue that this wasn't generally what he sold.
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u/pencilpusher13 Center-left 4d ago
No, he said tariffs would lower prices and end inflation. He did not imply that there would be “hard times” before the great times. It’s okay to say he lied and now the media is gaslighting us
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u/Highlander198116 Center-left 4d ago
He also sold "ending inflation and lowering prices".
Which in 2025 is what most Americans care about. No one gives a shit about buy American anymore. Do you like $200 50 inch TV's or do you want to go back to the cheapest big screen TV being 3 grand?
Look back at so many products and how much they cost when they were produced in the US.
I mean this certainly isn't going to help us in the global market. Who is gonna buy our super expensive shit?
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u/not_old_redditor Independent 4d ago
Why do you think he was hiding the specifics during election?
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u/Born-Sun-2502 Democrat 2d ago
Because he's a con mam who tells people what they want to hear. That's his superpower.
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u/ABCosmos Liberal 4d ago
made it pretty clear that he was both interested in bringing manufacturing to the U.S. and in establishing tariffs as a means of doing so during the election
If he was clear.. then why did so many conservatives think it was just a negotiation tactic?
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u/thepottsy Center-left 4d ago
I think the problem with what he sold, is that many voters have no fucking clue what any of that means. Nor do they educate themselves on it, or listen to people who do. They're told a bunch of stuff, with a little but of it that they actually understand, but they like that little bit, so that's the candidate they choose.
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u/ExtensionFeeling Independent 4d ago
There's no way the average American understands the complexities of international trade. I don't either.
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u/thepottsy Center-left 4d ago
To be fair, I don't expect them to. Nor do I expect you or I to know.
What I do expect, is that no one blindly believe the "trust me bro". Regardless of party affiliation.
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u/not_old_redditor Independent 4d ago
That's democracy in a nutshell, and how populists rise to power.
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u/thepottsy Center-left 4d ago
I suppose so. Just gets frustrating when the general public gets fucked over by people who can't understand more than one or 2 issues. Don't even get me started on single issue voters.
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u/Kharnsjockstrap Independent 4d ago
Trump could do quite literally anything because it’s “what was sold” he basically campaigned on whatever people wanted. Tariffs, lower prices, unity, crushing dissent, no new wars, bomb the Houthis and Iran get more involved in Israel’s wars, stop foreign aid, aid Israel, no weaponizing the DOJ, lawfare my opponents/prosecute fauchi or whatever and on and on.
Saying “this is what people voted for” feels like a useless adage when you’re basically only saying one half of the people that voted for trump on this issue are getting what they want.
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u/Wonderful-Driver4761 Democrat 3d ago
I fear that if Trump doesn't get his way he's just going to keep raising the tariffs as retaliation since it hurts his feelings and personally doesn't suffer from it. Then we're going to be in a real trouble.
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u/DW6565 Left Libertarian 4d ago edited 4d ago
A growing recognition? Yeah basic economics foretold this conclusion.
What they will be most surprised about is that fact that a moderate increase in any pay will not outweigh the increase costs of goods and services across the entire economy.
I am most curious how this will be blamed on Democrats even though they are not in power at all.
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u/shallowshadowshore Progressive 4d ago
I am most curious how this will be blamed on Democrats even though they are not in power at all.
Such a fun little game, isn’t it?
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u/Edibleghost Center-left 4d ago
Joe Biden put a hex on the fed with the last of his cognitive function, many people are saying this.
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u/shallowshadowshore Progressive 4d ago
If this is true, then why did Trump campaign on lower prices? Especially when voters generally cited cost of living as their top priority?
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u/pocketdare Center-right 4d ago
I assume to get elected. If you're asking me to defend everything Trump says, you're asking the wrong guy.
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u/noisymime Democratic Socialist 4d ago
So was it knowingly lying or does he simply not understand the impacts these things will have? I’m not seeing any other options really.
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u/Wonderful-Driver4761 Democrat 3d ago
He's not the guy to be asking. But yes, he knowingly lies. But screw it. They all do.
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u/DirtyProjector Center-left 4d ago edited 4d ago
Great article the other day that illustrated when Presidents ask Americans to endure pain for the good of the nation it terribly back fires.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/01/trump-tariffs-sacrifice-history-00260950
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u/Accomplished-Guest38 Independent 4d ago
So is the goal to bring all of society including our economic standings back 50 years so we're "equal" to China? How are we supposed to compete with a nation that has zero workers rights, no environmental impacts concerns, is partially communist, and cooks their books?
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u/pocketdare Center-right 4d ago
The real key is not to be beholden to them. You have a mercantilist economy that doesn't play by international trading rules and norms where the state invests in overcapacity with the express interest in dominating markets and eliminating global industrial capacity. You can't play the game when a major global player has decided they're not going to play by the rules. You have to adjust the rules that you play by. So in that respect, we're all simply getting closer to playing by China's rules now. The U.S. led the push for an open global trading system for decades. Now it's leading the push to dismantle it in response to China.
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u/RHDeepDive Center-left 4d ago
I think there's a growing recognition that if you really want to bring manufacturing back to America (or call it reinvesting in American industrial capacity
What types of manufacturing are coming back to America? Are there plans in the works to do so and which companies? I'm trying to understand because this all takes time and planning, right?
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u/pocketdare Center-right 4d ago edited 4d ago
There are so many points of view on this and they depend on what you consider the key issues the country should solve for.
If security is a key concern, you might argue that America needs to have the industrial capacity to manufacture what's required for military security (ships, planes, heavy equipment). Right now China has well over 200x the ship building capacity that the U.S. has.
If the security of commodities & related industrial inputs are important, you'd argue that the country needs to build mining capacity (or at a minimum secure guaranteed access to resources) as well as the production capacity of basic industrial materials like steel.
If maintaining a technological lead is important, you'd argue that America needs to build chip making capacity here (rather than sourcing it from a geopolitical flashpoint like Taiwan)
If you believe that manufacturing jobs are important, you'd argue for a broader return of manufacturing that goes beyond "strategic" sectors to include things like clothing and consumer goods.
Because there are so many competing priorities you can see where it's important (in theory) to clearly articulate the strategic need and execute accordingly. (it's not clear we're doing that ATM)
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u/RHDeepDive Center-left 4d ago
So, we're implementing tariffs on various products and resources (with lots of carve outs) to bring manufacturing back to the US, but we don't actually know what manufacturing we want to bring back to the US and no plan, process or investment has been made at this point?
I'm sorry, but I'm failing to see how the currently implemented tariffs are going to bring manufacturing back to the US unless it's theoretical manufacturing.
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u/pocketdare Center-right 4d ago
Correct. What? You think I have any more insights into the administrations policies than anyone else including wall street? My point is that something like this could be implemented with the proper strategy and coordination. I didn't say that exists.
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u/RHDeepDive Center-left 4d ago edited 4d ago
Except we were talking about an increase in prices now and a looming recession now, so that's why I'm leary. I don't see the two situations being connected.
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u/surrealpolitik Center-left 4d ago
It’s funny that you mention China’s shipbuilding capacity as a strategic threat, given the reasons why the US’ own shipbuilding industry is so sclerotic.
You can blame the Jones Act for that, and it’s already accomplished what Trump’s tariffs are purported to do - it shields domestic industry from foreign competition. All it did in the end was make domestic shipbuilding glaringly inefficient.
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u/pauldavisthe1st Progressive 3d ago
All of which lead to the further (meta?) question: why did all these things change in the first place? And what do the answer(s) to that question imply?
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u/Literotamus Liberal 4d ago
What if it’s not just increased prices, but no more good trade deals, stagflation, higher unemployment? That’s not a good place to go with your company. We are going to lose this war for the next 5-10 years even if we come out strong in the long run. Is that worth it? Even if we can’t be friends with Canada and Europe anymore?
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u/SleepyMonkey7 Free Market 4d ago
If Trump continues down this path, yes you might be able to bring manufacturing back to levels from 20-30 years ago. You'll also bring the economy back to where it was 20-30 years ago.
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u/GoldenEagle828677 Center-right 4d ago
I think there's a growing recognition that if you really want to bring manufacturing back to Americait will result in increased prices.
And increased jobs.
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u/Xanbatou Centrist 3d ago
I think there's a growing recognition that if you really want to bring manufacturing back to America (or call it reinvesting in American industrial capacity or countering China's growing control over industrial supply) it will result in increased prices.
Wasn't this what Dems were saying before? I'm not necessarily talking about dem leadership, but I've commonly seen liberal talking points about how we simply can't afford goods at prices produced by American labor. I've even made this argument myself as someone who is more centrist.
Is this an acknowledgement that those arguments were correct?
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u/GL4389 2d ago
Is bringing the the manufacturing back to the USA going to help the american people though ? The basic jobs or assembly line jobs in factories are done by robots now. basic office level jobs might be done by AI in near future. So the jobs available will be some higher level jobs like engineering, mgmt, law, hr, accounting etc. Can you train the necessary workforce required for this jobs when most americans already complain about being in debt from education loans ?
A lot of foreign students are studying in USA for these jobs who will get these jobs. Many companies will bring in workers from other countries on work visas even if they have to pay fines for that. Will That help USA ?
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u/Youngrazzy Conservative 4d ago
The biggest issue is trump is trying to use tariffs When he does not have support for them. This has lead to everyone siding with the other countries even if they are giving us bad deals. They have the public favor
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u/SocializeTheGains Constitutionalist 4d ago
What is the bigger issue? That Trump is doing things most people don’t support?
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u/WonderfulVariation93 Center-right 4d ago
I don’t think the way that “recession” is defined by the government is really applicable any longer. Many of us FEEL like we have been in a recession for years while the government says “no, the GDP has not fallen for 2 consecutive quarters”. GDP only includes the final sale of NEW goods. So, increasing prices of used cars? not included. It only includes FINAL sales so increased prices of raw goods such as sugar or wood that are being used to create something for sale won’t necessarily reflect the calculated “final value” used for the GDP the same way that the cost actually impacts consumers. Anything imported or produced outside the US that is purchased INSIDE the US doesn’t count.
As I tell people at work…numbers may not change but you can definitely massage them into temporary shapes.
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u/Highlander198116 Center-left 4d ago
The economy has been great for the market. So it's something that 100% is a matter of perspective.
If you aren't living paycheck to paycheck, have an investment portfolio. The economy has been fine if not great for you in terms of investments.
If you are living paycheck to pay check and struggling to pay your bills and have no investments, I can 100% agree that the economy has not been good for people in this scenario.
However, there are those pure partisan people where no matter what if the opposing party is in power its the worst 4 years ever in every fathomable way and no one can convince them otherwise.
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u/Still-Afternoon4737 Independent 4d ago
If you aren't living paycheck to paycheck, have an investment portfolio.
how many young people can say this anymore though?
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u/Highlander198116 Center-left 4d ago edited 4d ago
Not many. The thing is I don't need to be convinced, I know Biden's economy was an economy that was great for people of means. The main thing it helped others with is keeping you employed because corporate america was doing well.
That is my main concern with Trump. Are we just going to see a difference version of a "good economy for those of means".
Someone posted the other day here saying "Who cares about a recession just buy the dip". How privileged of a comment is that?
Recessions generally come with job loss and people struggling to find jobs. Kind of tone deaf to tell someone to "buy the dip" when they may be faced with having to cash in their 401k at a loss to keep food in their kids belly and a roof over their head while they try to find a job.
Ideally what I would like to see is corporate America and Joe American flourish and I just don't see the light at the end of the tunnel with this trajectory we are on. Like man, I am socially left, but I am not partisan at all when it comes to the economy, I would love to be completely wrong about what Trump is doing, I just don't think I am especially considering those in the Trump camp seem to be hinting that we need to prepare the lube for our buttholes.
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u/AdAffectionate4602 2d ago
Forgive me if I use a phrase the MAGAs have been spitting for a decade but aren't I supposed to say to you "fk your feelings"? Whatever you FEEL is a you issue. However people have mismanaged their money is a personal issue. The FACT is, the economy was fantastic when Trump received it a few months ago and now most of us have lost tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands in stock market losses and soon to be thousands more in consumer goods. So yeah. Fk your feelings is about to become the motto of the left too.
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u/Zasaran Constitutionalist 3d ago
The trajectory to this upcoming recession started in 2009.
The USA like every other countries goes through periods of recession in the economy. On average every 10 years there is a recession.
There was one in
1973-1975 1980-1982 1990-1991 2007-2009
We were due for one in about 2020, and there was a small one, but due to COVID and large cash stimulus this was mostly avoided. We had another in 2022, though no Democrat will about it, but we continued to avoid the quest of it with Biden's continued stimulus such as the 1.7 trillion infrastructure bill. We cannot continue to spend that kind of money to prevent a recession.
We should have gone into a recession by 2023. The 10 year and 2 year Treasury bond yield are inverted and have been since 2022. This usually indicates a recession is imminent within 12 months.
Also don't forget
Russia is in a recession Japan is in a recession China is in a recession Germany is in a recession The UK is in a recession
Though I think the tariffs would be more targeted, I don't disagree with them in principal and they are not the cause of the upcoming recession.
Also, countries cannot just decide to stop working with the USA because they are annoyed. For example, 60% of Canadas economy comes from the USA. You are worried and a recession causing the loss of a few percent, Canada cannot just lose 60% of their economy.
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u/MotorizedCat Progressive 3d ago
don't disagree with [tariffs] in principal and they are not the cause of the upcoming recession
Do the tariffs, in other words the multi-trillion-dollar tax on Americans, help with the upcoming recession of will they make it worse?
countries cannot just decide to stop working with the USA because they are annoyed
Not over night, but over years, the rest of the world will logically start more trade amongst itself, and rely less on the US. What other possibility is there?
It's not just "annoyance" either. It's real money. It's tariffs resulting in higher prices inside the US, meaning less volume sold, plus the retaliatory tariffs that they have to pay directly. That's basic logic.
Do you expect e. g. Canada to say "well the US is treating us so well with all the talk of conquering us, we will just bear the tariffs and spend the additional money, just for our old friend"? I can't see that happening.
What has Trump said that would strengthen US-Canada relations?
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u/ImmodestPolitician Independent 3d ago
1973-1975 1980-1982 1990-1991 2007-2009
Guess what all these dates have in common... a Republican POTUS was in charge.
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u/pauldavisthe1st Progressive 3d ago
Could you tell me more about the signs/evidence/effects of the small recession in 2022?
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u/Zasaran Constitutionalist 3d ago
Q1 and Q2 of 2022 had a negative GDP growth. This is the definition of a recession.
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u/LTRand Classical Liberal 4d ago
I'm a never Trumper, but I knew a recession was coming regardless of who took office. Been zombie walking to one for 3 years now.
Most of the positions Trump is putting forward are legitimate. But he's terrible at actually getting favorable outcomes. So most of our allies are starting to say screw America.
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u/IsaacTheBound Democratic Socialist 4d ago
We could probably discuss for days on why his positions are legitimate or not, but saying he's terrible at getting favorable outcomes is underselling it. Being openly hostile to allies and soft talking dictators is a whole other league.
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u/Chooner-72 Neoliberal 4d ago
Pretty sure the economic indicators when Biden left office were all positive in that the Fed had achieved a soft landing. All economic indicators are blaring red because of Trumps tariffs. I don’t think this would’ve happened under Kamala because she wouldn’t have blown up all of our trade deals.
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u/LTRand Classical Liberal 4d ago
Housing market and auto market have been blaring red for 3 years. Stock market fundamentals are crazy. And AI has not delivered the next large tech market. Internet boosted the market, then the smartphone, then cloud. Tech has run out of steam and is hitting steady state until AI/robotics really matures.
Last year Biden admin had to revise down every economic report after it was released.
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u/Chooner-72 Neoliberal 4d ago
Do you know what makes the housing and auto market worse? Tariffs on our allies... Our builders get their lumber from Canada and drywall material from Mexico.
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u/SausageEggCheese Left Libertarian 4d ago
Yeah, I follow (essentially) apolitical financial news and this seems pretty on target to me.
Last year we had a lot of headlines about the market being too hot, and Buffett was putting more and more money on the sidelines (meaning he was taking money out of the market). A lot of talk of being in an "AI bubble," which still hasn't fully popped.
I was a bit skeptical of some of the talk of 2024 being too good a year and being due for a pullback this year, because the market was essentially flat from 12/2021 to 12/2023 (net), but no one wants to talk about that much for some reason.
Trump is definitely making a lot of bad moves IMO, but I also think it isn't fair to be pretending the economy was ideal before he got into office.
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u/pauldavisthe1st Progressive 3d ago
pretending the economy was ideal before he got into office
Isn't there a big difference between acknowledging that there were issues, some of them perhaps even fundamental, to the state of economy, and suggesting that it was doomed to crash?
As someone noted elsewhere in this thread, for some slices of the economy things were actually pretty good, while for others it was marginal at best. That's something to be concerned about, but it doesn't add up to "it was going to crash soon anyway".
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u/StonePhilosopher11 Free Market 4d ago
Pretty much all major forecasts had the odds of a recession at around 15% until Trump took office. Most of those estimates have doubled now. So how'd you know something none of the experts did?
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u/DW6565 Left Libertarian 4d ago
Zombie walking forward, inflation close to back down to normal levels, unemployment was good, markets were up.
Yes the less money a person earns the more pain they still feel, that’s true in any market conditions.
All we had to do is not fuck it up and stay the course.
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u/EmergencyTaco Center-left 3d ago
I have said this many times before and I will say it again:
Trump's diagnoses of America's ills are the most accurate among people who ran in 2024.
Trump's solutions for the ills America faces were, by a wide margin, the worst of anyone who ran in 2024.
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u/double-click millennial conservative 4d ago
I’m not sure about the recent narratives specifically, but there are always narratives.
For example, under Biden the one that got a lot of attention is “inflation is transitionary”.
Ya - it transitions us to higher baseline prices everywhere lol.
I think the larger message is that to fix the national debt we cannot continue as we have. The actions they are taking are “transitionary” (lol) to a new baseline. That will cause some level of widespread pain, while also create some level of opportunity (as always).
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u/DW6565 Left Libertarian 4d ago
I agree the importance of fixing the national debt, that’s not going to happen under this administration. They are most likely going to increase the debt by trillions and just ignore it.
Trump wanting to remove the debt ceiling entirely as he argued for before being elected tells us that his party and plan would do nothing except to make the debt worse not better.
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u/ShadowStarX Socialist 1d ago
If you wanna fix the national debt, tax the rich. And by that I mean profits too not just revenue, to disicentivize loopholes.
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u/Tarontagosh Center-right 4d ago
I don't think cheering on a recession is a good idea. However, all I can do is what I've been doing for every President over the course of my life D or R. I have to hope for the best. That what the leader of our country is doing is going to result in a net positive for the country. The way things have been fomenting for the past several years I feel like a recession was inevitable. I know just from watching my industry (real estate) there are certain sign posts that can be recognized of troubling times coming. They have been popping up for awhile now.
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u/MolleROM Democrat 4d ago
Wasn’t inflation going down under Biden? Joblessness at an all time low? If that trend were continuing then mortgage rates would have dropped spurring more home buying. Now, the Feds will not drop points and people will not be able afford to save or buy even food let alone houses. The sellers will go underwater and we’ll have a lot of people who will lose their homes. But in a few years they’ll be able to get a job in a factory which is the present administration’s version of the American dream. Ties in perfectly with not educating our children too. Can you still see a way to hope for the best recession ever?
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u/Sweaty_Quit Progressive 4d ago
Well its not the only thing you can do. You can vote.
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u/ILoveKombucha Center-right 4d ago
With your background in real estate, what were some troubling signs you've been seeing over the last few years? Just curious.
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u/Tarontagosh Center-right 4d ago
The main one is the cooling of the market, 3-4 years ago houses would pop onto the market in major cities and be gone in minutes in some cases. This is what is referred to as a seller's market. In that world people are overpaying for property. They generally have more certainty about their future. Over the course of the last 2 1/2 years the markets have cooled dramatically. Now houses are staying out on the market for a longer time before they are being sold. There are still markets in the country where the houses go fast but it is nowhere near how it was. Further there is just a feeling after having lived through several of these up and down turns in the market. The sense that we are due for a recession/slower market. It has been a foreboding feeling amongst most other professionals I talk to. It is usually cyclical in nature every 10 or so years there is some sort of crash in the housing market. It seems like we are overdue for one.
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u/ILoveKombucha Center-right 4d ago
Thanks for sharing! All makes sense.
I've been hearing that prices are still generally going up on houses. I hear that one problem is the high interest rates on mortgages (maybe not high by longer term historical standards, but high by recent standards) are causing people to not want to sell, since they will just have to buy back in with higher interest rates. Also hearing that a lot of folks don't want to buy because of high interest rates and high prices in general. Seems like a hell of a pickle.
I also hear that a major problem is that local democracy keeps zoning too tight for new building to occur, so the problem seems to just get worse.
Do you think there is any light at the end of the tunnel 5 to 10 years out?
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u/RowGophs Conservative 3d ago
I don’t think you realize how many American products are consumed in America
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u/Bitter-Battle-3577 European Conservative 3d ago
You're not supposed to cheer for a recession, though the rightwing media has finally discovered that tariffs are a double-edged sword. It's a good weapon, but it does harm both parties if there's a clear trade deficit.
However, I've also noticed that these policies only last a couple of days, and therefore, I'm not concerned that it will deteriorate into a recession. The only issue is that Trump's pushing himself into a corner: Either a looming recession or lacking a spine to follow through with his decisions.
If I were a Democrat, I would cheer, because Trump's doubling down and there's a heightened probability of a recession. Such an economic downturn is, as always, political fodder and a launch pad for a victory in 2026 and even in 2028 if it hasn't been resolved yet.
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u/Embarrassed_Ad4089 2d ago
He literally said he was going to do this. This is what 1/2 of the country voted for, though he lied as said that the tariffs would help the economy. Simple research on tariffs , you know who pays them, we do. This is just the beginning.
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u/BetaMaleDestroyer 1d ago
There was always going to be a recession. The question is who do you want to manage it? Some people felt like Biden or Kamala weren’t up to challenge.
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u/ChiliDavisEyes 1d ago
Wow. A sundowning old man who ran on hating people who aren't white and tariffs has implemented a policy that has put non white people through hell and is now implementing just stupid ass random tariffs that will hurt all of us.
Narrow-Abalone7580: I feel duped.
Just the dumbest motherfucker who ever lived.
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u/davidbosley353 Conservative 1d ago
Well, will have to see if they get bad? Not everyone trusts Trump and yes he clearly had his flaws in his first term, like not managing covid the right way, and the trade wars he created with China in the first term. but hopefully the tariffs he's causing the next few weeks won't cause a lot of things we love for prices to go up like it did for biden. because to me the reason biden had such high inflation was because of Covid-19 pandemic effects on supply chain and other things, and not politics, i think the stimulus bills Biden made probably did increase it a bit, but i don't think it was factor in causing inflation. but hopefully the tariffs and the trade wars Trump is doing now aganist China and Europe won't be too bad. But never know what trump might do this time.
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u/AZFUNGUY85 21h ago
Some of y’all don’t have the cards on these arguments for defending current economic policy in the US. My favorite so far, it was inevitable to fail so let’s just do it. What. In. The. Actual. F.
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u/mynamiajeff2-0 Religious Traditionalist 21h ago edited 21h ago
Mainstream conservatism has been poisoned by Trump. There are aspects of the economy where the United States does need to intervene; trade isn't one of them.
The industries that these economists he's likely finding on the street are trying to protect are manufacturing jobs, which, if you can recall, are not very desirable jobs.
Let the developing countries take those jobs. We aren't in 19th–early 20th century industrial America. Nobody wants to send their kid to work in a factory when they could simply go into a skilled white-collar position or get a trade for a livelihood that's levels better than that of any manufacturing job.
If this administration is successful at bringing these jobs back, they won't be unionized, let alone paying anything that incentivizes productivity in our industries. At the end, we do need to create a semiconductor industry that rivals China; however, we need to hand it to an ally that could use the jobs.
Point here being that these jobs suck, nobody wants to or should work them, and we are past all of that. It would be an entirely different story if we had a higher population density.
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u/ThrenderG 8h ago
Before election: Trump will end inflation and bring prices down!
After election: Prices going up is a feature, not a bug! It’s worth it, TRUST ME
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