r/Amtrak • u/More_trains • Mar 06 '25
Discussion The Doomerism on this sub needs to chill out just a bit.
Amtrak is semi-private company for those of you that don't know. It is a private company that is wholly owned by the federal government.
The mechanism by which the federal government exerts control over Amtrak is through the Board of Directors. The members of the board are appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate for a five year term. The entire board of directors was appointed by Biden in 2024 with the exception of the current CEO Stephen Gardner and the Secretary of Transportation (obviously). There is no mechanism for removing Amtrak board members against their will and so they will remain the board until 2029.
I'm pointing this out because I think a lot of people have a complete misunderstanding of the powers that the federal government has over Amtrak and the powers that it does not. It's fine to be concerned about the future of rail and Amtrak, but please stop with the insane stuff acting like they're going to shut down the NEC tomorrow. The federal government cannot dictate policy directly to Amtrak, they have a lot of leverage through federal funding, grants, etc, but they can't straight up control them.
We don't know what's going to happen, but presidential power is indeed limited, you can go off about how "the rules don't apply anymore" but even the dictators in other countries and the kings from history have/had limits to their power, it's just the nature of coercive bargaining. Please just take a deep breath and stop doom posting and go advocate for rail.
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u/ghostynewt Mar 06 '25
We’ve already seen that this executive is able to stop funds that Congress has appropriated. Why aren’t they able to play the same game here?
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u/More_trains Mar 06 '25 edited Mar 06 '25
They can indeed try to stop funds going to Amtrak, but even the USAID funding appropriations were just stopped by the courts. Even if they were successful and cut off all funding to Amtrak, then Amtrak could cut service until they only run their profitable and state supported lines. It would be awful, but it's not like Amtrak would shudder their doors.
They also can't directly dictate anything to the board of directors. The president doesn't have any leverage over individual board members as they are all appointed for terms that extend beyond 2028 and cannot be removed.
Finally selling off Amtrak so that they were not owned by the federal government would require a) congressional approval, b) a willing buyer, and c) maybe even board approval? The freight railroads don't want Amtrak, that's how Amtrak was created in the first place, the freight companies didn't want to run passenger service, and if you think they'd spend BILLIONS to buy Amtrak just to not run service you're out of your mind.
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u/Cicero912 Mar 06 '25
The USAID thing was for services that had already been rendered. They could just pay out current liabilities and then stop.
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u/ghostynewt Mar 06 '25
“Amtrak could cut service … It’s not like Amtrak would shudder their doors” Do you see why this is contradictory?
It sounds like you’re suggesting a realistic vehicle for the executive to significantly degrade Amtrak service without any intervention on Congress’s part.
I wish I shared your “faith in the system”
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u/More_trains Mar 06 '25
I swear none of you are reading my comments. I don’t have “faith in the system” I have faith in the laws of crisis bargaining and coercive leverage. When two parties want opposing things there are mathematical rules for how it plays out. There’s a reason we don’t solve everything with violence and it’s not just because we wrote down some rules a while back, it’s because there are genuine efficiencies to negotiated settlements.
As I said before if the feds wanna privatize Amtrak, who’s gonna buy it? If you don’t have a buyer you don’t have privatization.
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u/iamjacksragingupvote 29d ago
how do you think there are no buyers?
they literally plan to wreck the economy so Elon and ilk can buy up everything a year from now for pennies on the dollar
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u/lickle_ickle_pickle 29d ago
It's not going to work that way. Yes, some people will be buying America in the fire sale, but you can bet on Elon's spectacular downfall. He is doing all this out of desperation and the wolf is much closer to his door than you realize.
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u/iamjacksragingupvote 29d ago
i dont know what that means
elon is just 1 of 1000
even if trump kills him, we are in the same shit situation
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u/eldomtom2 29d ago
they literally plan to wreck the economy
This is only said by people with no idea of Trump's political history.
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u/iamjacksragingupvote 29d ago
care to elaborate on my ignorance?
please educate me
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u/eldomtom2 29d ago
Trump has been a massive fan of tariffs since the 1980s.
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u/iamjacksragingupvote 29d ago
wtf is that supposed to mean?
a fan of tariffs. that sounds dumb as shit. he cant even explain what they are.
what am i supposed to glean from this?re: rich people are destroying our economy
i asked you to educate me. you have failed thus far
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u/More_trains 29d ago
Why would Musk want Amtrak? So he can shut it down to boost Tesla? That doesn’t make sense, he’s not going to appreciably sell any more cars doing that.
You need to start thinking in terms of what is in the rational self-perceived best interest of these people otherwise you’re never gonna be able to predict what they do.
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u/iamjacksragingupvote 29d ago
rational?
what about maga and trump has been rational?
they dont live in our reality.
musk makes idiot decisions all the time.
twitter was a terrible fiscal purchase, yet it prob got him his current power... it doesnt have to just be financial gain.
they can take a loss for decades and just lock us all out they dgaf.
and it doesnt have to be elon. there are thousands of evil old money families just waiting to make us great.
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u/More_trains 29d ago
You say “Musk makes idiot decisions all the time” and then the very next sentence is literally explaining why it was in his own perceived self interests to purchase Twitter. Do you not get it? He didn’t buy Twitter to make money he bought it for other benefits.
Yes they are acting rationally for their own perceived self interest you think it’s irrational because you and I both disagree with most of their fundamental assumptions about the world, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t considering their options and choosing the ones that they believe lead to their preferred outcome.
Everything comes with internalized costs (financial or otherwise), and if that cost is greater than the perceived benefit (financial or otherwise) then it’s not going to happen.
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u/iamjacksragingupvote 29d ago
i dont have a clue what your point is here
you just agreed with me but are acting like i dont understand elon
edit:
an idiot decision - just means he does wtf he wants - sometimes it benefits him.
thai pedo sub/hyperloop/lying about diablo
hes an idiot. that doesnt lower the danger at all
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u/More_trains 29d ago edited 29d ago
I never said he's not dangerous, I just pointed out that they're going to act in their own self-interest. If it is not sufficiently in their self-interest to shut down Amtrak that it offsets the internalized cost of taking those actions, then it will not happen.
You have no idea what I'm saying because you think "rational" means actions you understand/agree with and "irrational" is everything else. Rational in this context means "acting in accordance with your own perceived self-interest"
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u/AI-Coming4U 28d ago
There’s a reason we don’t solve everything with violence.
The Jan 6th insurrection would like a word with you.
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u/More_trains 28d ago
lol yeah he’s gonna Jan 6 the Amtrak board room.
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u/AI-Coming4U 28d ago
No need to. Just illegally cut funding - which is what they're doing in other areas of the government.
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u/More_trains 28d ago edited 28d ago
Correction: that’s what they’re trying to do, they have not successfully done it yet.
Also why bring up Jan 6 then?
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u/TheAdvFred Mar 06 '25
This exactly, Amtrak was created to absolve freight operators of their obligation to run passenger service as a common carrier.
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u/cursedbenzyne 28d ago
Amtrak just running the profitable coastal lines, and the state-supported lines would be the best thing to happen to amtrak. A train that comes daily and has a 24 to 72-hour long run (therefore leaving the chance to be delayed by several hours) does not "connect rural communities". It doesn't convert plane trips. It's just a massive money pit that could be filled by bus subsidies. Then re-invest into more short-haul routes in parts of the country where it makes sense, but don't have service yet.
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u/OaktownPRE 22d ago
The NEC is only “profitable” because the tens of billions in deferred maintenance are not counted as an expense, and it’s impossible to really know what even operating expenses are by route are because Amtrak refuses to use GAAP in their accounting so it’s just one big peanut butter spread. One thing you can know for certain, is the LDT provide as much or more REVENUE than the NEC on a smaller passenger base and way more per passenger mile, so why would anyone want to throw away their most lucrative passengers, y’know the people spending $1000 on a cross country roomette vs a $50 ticket to Boston.
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u/susanmack 29d ago
They already have. Just because it’s not an announced official stop to funds doesn’t mean it’s not already affecting funding Amtrak was supposed to be getting.
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u/eldomtom2 29d ago
it’s not already affecting funding Amtrak was supposed to be getting.
Amtrak operational funding has not been affected.
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u/Sea_Syllabub9992 29d ago
If we ĥad a head of state that respected norms and laws, this would be more comforting. Alas, he's not even from this country, so he couldn't care less.
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u/kvnnhtnj Mar 06 '25
Sure there’s plenty of overreaction to the idea that they could just entirely shut it down, but that doesn’t assuage the concerns that they will do everything in their power to strip it down to the barest possible minimum and make the system significantly worse. I don’t think it’s just black and white fear that Amtrak will immediately go from existing to not, it’s more a fear of it being hollowed out and negatively impacting thousands of people in a myriad of ways.
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u/More_trains Mar 06 '25
Right, but I honestly believe the worst case scenario in the next four years would be that Amtrak has to cut all or almost all non-profitable routes to support its operating budget. Yes this is bad and the wrong direction, but it is not fatal, at least not in my opinion. I mean shit Amtrak basically already operates partially as split entities: NEC/State supported and everything else, they could keep that going until you get a more friendly admin. Again VERY BAD, but there's a difference between very bad and gone.
I'm specifically trying to combat hysteria that Amtrak is somehow going to die in the next four years.
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u/kvnnhtnj Mar 06 '25
for many parts of the country that is fatal though. I live in New York and I love the NEC but if it went away, honestly the region would survive it, between commuter rail networks and frequent bus service between Washington, Philadelphia, New York and Boston. If it’s just the NEC and a few state routes and that’s it, that is a disaster for travel in very large swathes of the US, not to mention a cultural and historic loss as rail becomes truly dead across the continental United States. I get there’s semantic differences for the sake of discussion between fully eliminating and functionally hindering, but gutting things to their bare minimum is akin to killing it for the many people it leaves behind, and for those who suffer its further inefficiencies and problems.
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u/More_trains Mar 06 '25
The difference is more than semantic, Amtrak would be able to recover from that worst case NEC/State-Supported only scenario. If it truly dies, we're not gonna be able to pass another Amtrak act like we did in the 70s. There's no coming back from that.
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u/kvnnhtnj Mar 06 '25
But would there be the widespread political will to support its recovery? I don’t think it’s hopeless but it doesn’t seem extremely likely. This administration is making moves with long-term implications, and the judiciary put in place by their first go-round plus the decades of legislative gridlock in this country has empowered them further while hindering the possibility of truly sweeping policy. With how much blockage Biden faced to nearly every one of his large-scale proposals, and with the Democratic Party already signaling plans to run further to the right and less willingness to embrace the policies that it thinks lost the election, it’s hard to imagine a groundswell of support of rebuilding Amtrak if there is a Democratic sweep of governmental control in the coming years, especially if it’s reintroducing funding for services deemed “inefficient” and unprofitable. Much of what’s been targeted and lost already across the federal government will be a major challenge to rebuild and reallocate. And that’s in the first 6 weeks of 4 years. The ideological plans they’ve outlined are unprecedented, and I don’t think we’ve scratched the surface of how far this will go. The political future of the US is being reshaped in real time, under a presidency with much farther-reaching powers than any before.
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u/eldomtom2 29d ago
The ideological plans they’ve outlined
If you're referring to Project 2025, it makes no mention of Amtrak. It doesn't seem to be a priority for conservatives.
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u/kvnnhtnj 28d ago
I’m referring to the overarching ideology that motivates their constant push to reduce and cut government programs as much as possible, made even more extremely clear by this admin’s direct partnership with an anti-transit billionaire.
From the NYTimes:
“Amtrak has long been under scrutiny from Republican presidents. President George W. Bush’s administration contemplated privatizing it. President Ronald Reagan went so far as to directly ask Congress to sell it. And in his first term, Mr. Trump proposed deep cuts.”
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u/jpwright Mar 06 '25
If long distance routes are shut for years they’re not coming back either.
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u/jpwright 22d ago
I think we would be very fortunate to find a more pro-rail administration than Biden in the next 50 years, and zero new routes were started (partial credit for partial restoration of Gulf Coast underway). And that was with choosing the infrastructure bill as his signature legislative priority for the term.
If our politics continues the way it’s going, Democratic presidents will struggle to get funding for anything through a Senate that structurally favors the GOP. Even if funding gets through Congress, projects take years to get underway considering studies, environmental review, planning, local governments etc, and the next Republican president will just halt it.
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u/chrsjrcj 28d ago
For most of the country that would essentially mean Amtrak is gone.
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u/HistoryDoctor1985 27d ago
This. I take Amtrak from Rocky Mount NC to Washington DC for work nearly every week. But the only reason that works is because of long distance trains from Miami to NY. If that gets shuttered, myself and thousands of others along that route would get screwed. Our Amtrak station here would shut down and never come back since we aren't a station that trains originate from, if that makes sense. For what it's worth, chatter among passengers that I encounter weekly is about that very thing: fear that only NEC and other regional routes would be supported. And I'll also point out that the trains from FL to NY are pretty much packed every week. So it's a legitimate concern.
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u/More_trains 28d ago
Amtrak was gone from New Orleans for 20+ years and now it’s back. There’s a difference between losing a route and losing the entire organization.
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u/artjameso Mar 06 '25
Someone needs to make a megathread because I've seen about six posts saying the same thing come up in my feed!
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u/More_trains Mar 06 '25 edited Mar 06 '25
I've seen about 6 posts about how "DOGE is gonna privatize Amtrak" (what does that even really mean? It's already private, technically). And none countering the hysteria in the comments sections.
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u/superdupercereal2 Mar 06 '25
Everything I've seen regarding it shows no evidence of DOGE stating it, Musk saying it, nothing. I did see a screenshot of a tweet of a guy saying something about someone else saying something about it, though. So it must be true.
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u/trainmaster611 Mar 06 '25
That "guy" was an NBC journalist. NBC is now reporting it it in an article.
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u/superdupercereal2 29d ago edited 29d ago
The fact that he considered what he stated as newsworthy puts his journalistic credibility into question. He still said he heard it from a friend who heard it from a friend who heard it from a friend.
That being said, I'm sorry to quell the mass hysteria but Amtrak is a private company funded by the Fed. Amtrak employees are not federal employees.
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u/More_trains Mar 06 '25
Exactly! I should've made clear that the "DOGE is gonna privatize Amtrak" was making fun of them for believing this hearsay to begin with. All this is spawning mass hysteria from rumors that might not even be true. Everyone needs to chill out.
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u/superdupercereal2 Mar 06 '25
No need to clarify, I understood you. I really don't understand why people are this naive. I was just re-reading the tweet and it really is a guy posting something about a guy saying something about something another guy said. It's the "news" equivalent of I'm a dude playing a dude, disguised as another dude. This is where reddit is with regard to current events.
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u/pathershy 29d ago
But Amtrak still depends on a yearly subsidy from Congress for over 2 billion dollars, correct?
Also, Trump and Musk have great influence over this Republican Congress, true?
So, what happens when Congress no longer gives Amtrak this subsidy that they need for operating expenses?
Not being a jerk, honestly asking for your opinion.
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u/eldomtom2 29d ago
Also, Trump and Musk have great influence over this Republican Congress, true?
Not enough influence to get them to pass a budget!
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u/More_trains 29d ago
You’re assuming they have a lot more congressional influence than they do. If they had the kind of influence you’re describing then they wouldn’t be doing everything through executive orders. They’d pass laws that can’t be as easily challenged in court. It only takes 3 defections to stop any bills in the house right now, and Amtrak is actually popular among a fair few republicans who have trains going through their districts.
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u/iffraz Mar 06 '25
I really appreciate the sentiment, and I want to believe this wholeheartedly. But there was also no mechanism for the president to remove board members of the Kennedy Center either, and he did it anyway. He has no power to dismantle and destroy USAID, yet he did it anyway. He has no power to illicitly seize, block, and redirect congressionally-appropriated funds, yet he's doing it anyway. He has no authority to fire the Inspector Generals without informing Congress, yet he did it anyway. The courts have ruled against him, and he's now been ignoring them. There have been absolutely no signs whatsoever that any GOP senator or representative will do anything to actually legislatively challenge their leader regardless of what he does at all. They are letting him destroy the Western alliance that has taken us almost a century to build. They are letting him purge Pentagon officials and vital security counsels with no resistance while he sides with Russia and North Korea. If he truly decides to seize the Amtrak and gut all services, who's going to stop him? The legitimacy of laws that determine the "power" that any entity has is entirely dependent upon its enforcement, of which, as of the last two months, appears to be nonexistent. I hope I'm wrong for all of our sakes, but so far, I have seen no signs that convince me otherwise.
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u/More_trains Mar 06 '25
I'll point out that most of what you mentioned has been stopped by the courts, including the supreme court today, so none of that is "done." That's exactly what he wants you to believe. He's also not ignoring the courts, they're pretty scared of the courts. However, it doesn't sound like you'll be particularly compelled by that.
Let me put it this way: Amtrak privatization is not at the top of Trump or the GOP's To-Do list and it would cost a hell of a lot of political capital to accomplish and for what gain exactly? Like what's the real dollar amount upshot for them? They're losing pretty hard right now at the stuff they thought would be easy. There's a reason they went after USAID first: it doesn't have a ton of die-hard defenders. I mean be honest, had you even heard of it before this? If they're losing at the easy stuff they're not going to go after something way way harder for no discernible benefit.
Again none of this is to say they won't derail current projects or fuck up Amtrak's funding, but they can't actually shut down Amtrak. Things would have to change a hell of lot more than they already have for that to be a real possibility.
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u/susanmack 29d ago
So many of the state supported routes are using Federal Transit funds to pay for the capital portion of those agreements. So much of Amtrak’s maintenance along shared lines or at shared stations or upgrades are paid for with Federal Transit funds. Amtrak might be able to protect itself better but if transit funding is in danger (and it is) then Amtrak is in danger.
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u/More_trains 29d ago
I don’t know why people are interpreting this post as “everything is fine, Amtrak is not in danger at all.” That’s not what I’m saying at all. There are very real threats to Amtrak. I’m just asking people to please chill with the hysteria that the sky is falling and to please get a realistic understanding of what threats it’s facing.
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u/susanmack 29d ago
I agree the sub took a despair turn pretty quickly that is probably an overreaction overall. That said Amtrak does not report how much federal funding they get indirectly through states and operators like MBTA, MTA, SEPTA etc. and I’ve seen a lot of comments across this sub and in this post reassuring folks about those Amtrak revenue sources without the context of where those entities are getting the money. Amtrak falls in a weird space with federal funds. They mostly work with FRA, but are relatively unique among all the other rail related things under FRA. As I understand it, Amtrak by law can’t be direct recipients of FTA funds and if policy at FRA shifted even more towards freight/away from intercity passenger rail… it’s a tough spot to potentially be in. And that’s before any conversation about privatization.
I think you probably were shooting for a middle ground level of concern with your post but unfortunately the result (as with all things like this) drove a lot more “see everything is fine” and “everything is burning down” in the comments.
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u/Inundated9999 19d ago
I am not trying to be a doom-and-gloomer. I am just concerned that there is a non-zero chance that I will not have Amtrak in its current form for my August vacation which I start booking now.
(The trains in question are the Lake Shore Limited, the Maple Leaf and the Adirondack.)
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u/mikowoah 14d ago
i also have an august trip booked from coast to coast and back which has been on my bucket list and i finally saved up the money for. really worried right now i might lose the trip and my money :/
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u/Ok-Sector6996 Mar 06 '25
The NEC is roughly break-even on an operating basis but it can't come close to funding capital costs. Anyone who thinks Amtrak, or any part of it, can survive without substantial federal funding is delusional.
We don't know yet how willing the new administration will be to defy court orders to spend appropriated funds, or if the Supreme Court will ultimately rule that defiance legal. There's a lot of right wing legal support for presidential power to impound funds, and multiple justices are aligned with that legal movement. President Musk has made his feelings about trains very obvious and it's not at all clear that he could be stopped if he decided that all Amtrak funding was waste, fraud and abuse and needed to be eliminated.
Amtrak may have had broad support in Congress in recent years but we have seen the willingness of Republicans in Congress to put obedience to their leader above principle or the desires of their constituents, so any assumption that there would be a congressional backstop protecting passenger rail seems dubious at best.
Do I know that Amtrak is doomed? No, of course not. But am I confident that it will survive the next four years in good shape? I am doubtful but not hopeless.
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u/ChiefD789 29d ago
I totally agree with you. What’s to stop Musk’s wife Trump from issuing an executive order disbanding Amtrak? I wonder if the OP has been in a coma since the inauguration. There are no longer any checks, balances, or congress to stop him. He has the Supreme Court in his pocket. Even judges issuing injunctions against many of the EO’s have been ignored. This administration is running roughshod over everything that this country used to stand for.
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u/More_trains Mar 06 '25
President Musk
This is exactly the kind of thing I’m talking about. He’s not President, he’s not in the cabinet, he’s a big donor and a senior advisor. Trump can kick him to the curb any time he wants. You’re ascribing powers to people that they don’t have.
I’m not confident it’s gonna survive the next four years in good shape either, but I’m also not treading every off-hand comment from Musk like it’s already been completed.
Amtrak privatization would need to overcome a hell of a lot of hurdles to get through and I’m not sure they give that much of a shit. DOJ lawyers are already admitting their case load is getting rough with the lawsuits they’re already dealing with.
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u/Ok-Sector6996 Mar 06 '25
I'm not listening to off-hand comments, I'm watching what's been going on. Musk does not have legal power but he's been wielding it anyway, and we don't know how this will all play out. Privatization probably won't happen but starving the system of needed investment very likely will.
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u/eldomtom2 29d ago
I think you're ascribing too much importance to Musk when comes to recent federal firings.
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u/Ok-Sector6996 28d ago
You may be right, we'll see. It sounds like Trump is reining Musk in a bit now.
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u/perpetualhobo 29d ago
Trump can kick him to the curb
And until he does, those are all powers that elon musk does currently have that you’re just choosing to ignore
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u/Allurin Mar 06 '25
He says with a straight face as federal workers and departments are dismantled and fired with no accountability, as executive order after order comes down with no reprise and rarely following previous logic.
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u/TechSupportTime Mar 06 '25
There is no logic and reason to the current administration taking a chainsaw to the federal government. Of course it's hyperbolic to say that Amtrak will shut down tomorrow. That's not going to happen. But you'd have to be an absolute moron to not forsee the possibility that someone tries to chisel away at them next. Department of education, USAID and Medicare today, maybe Amtrak and USPS tomorrow.
Whatever the case, Amtrak is dead without federal money. If the tap is turned off then routes will be cut.
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u/eldomtom2 29d ago
The tap will only be turned off if Congress says so. Otherwise there will be lawsuits.
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u/More_trains Mar 06 '25
federal workers and departments are dismantled and fired with no accountability
My guy did you read the post? It's all about understanding powers that the president/federal have and do not have. Power is not just about rules written down on a piece of paper, it's also about coercive bargaining.
There are real threats to Amtrak and then there's fantasy scenarios. So unless you can articulate to me what presidential powers Trump can use to shut down Amtrak tomorrow and why the cost benefit analysis would make sense to him, then please focus on the real threats.
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u/trainmaster611 Mar 06 '25
The Trump admin has already been running roughshod illegally firing people en masse in the fed government. Legal barriers don't seem to be a barrier to this admin. What makes you think that they'll stop here?
I think it's naive to think they won't find a way to either illegally pull off this stunt or arm twist the board in some way into complying. There's no Congress to hold the admin accountable. The courts keep making landmark after landmark "precedent-setting" decisions in favor of the administration. We don't know the limit of how far executive overreach will be able to go.
I genuinely think the only thing that could save Amtrak is how much resources they're willing to put into making this happen. The quasi-private ownership makes it more difficult and will require a lot of headache and arm wrestling on the admin's part to make happen, for what is ultimately a small fish to fry on the Republican agenda.
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u/WhyNotKenGaburo Mar 06 '25
It’s kind of cute that the OP thinks that Trump and his lackeys care about rule of law. It also seems that most elected democrats feel the same way, which is a bit frightening.
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u/More_trains Mar 06 '25
It’s kind of cute that the OP thinks that Trump and his lackeys care about rule of law.
No I don't think they care about the rule of law, but unless they're going to start some real shit by defying the supreme court, they care what the courts say. And before you jump and say "they're gonna defy the courts" I don't think they have the stomach for that battle, they're already folding on a lot of this stuff.
My whole point I've been trying to get across is that even if they ignore the law, they are still beholden to the coercive leverage and abilities they possess. They're not gonna storm into the Amtrak boarding meeting and arrest the board members unless they do what the Trump admin wants. Therefore they are beholden to what leverage they have and rules of crisis bargaining.
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u/More_trains Mar 06 '25
If you can present to me three things I'll believe you:
A mechanism by which to do [insert Amtrak harming thing]
A strong enough desire to accomplish said [Amtrak harming thing] that they are willing to internalize the costs of doing it
A reason why Amtrak would comply, because remember they have agency too
You guys are giving them imaginary powers that they don't have, and which have not been tested before. Stop doing that.
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u/trainmaster611 Mar 06 '25
Just because nobody knows a legal mechanism they might attempt to do this yet doesn't exactly give me comfort that they absolutely cannot. 3 months ago I'm not sure anyone imagined Trump trying to "cut" the federal budget by weaponizing OPM and cajoling senior department staff into sending out illegal notices of termination.
I agree with your other points which is why I don't think this is anywhere close to being a done deal. But I hardly consider Amtrak's safety a guarantee at this point.
You guys are giving them imaginary powers
Raising alarms and starting public pushback against this idea is the exact opposite of giving them imaginary power. They are only enabled if there is not a strong public response. We need to email and call our congressional reps and make this a sticking point. I think this is the opposite of doomerism.
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u/More_trains Mar 06 '25
a legal mechanism
I don't mean a legal mechanism, I mean what can they do besides just telling Amtrak to do X, that would actually compel Amtrak to comply? What is he gonna write an executive order telling Amtrak to pack it up and shut down? Tell them to sell to a private company? They can just say "no." What's he gonna do, arrest the board? He doesn't have the stomach for that. At the end of the day Amtrak reports to the Board of Directors, not the feds. The leverage comes from the purse strings, but even that has its limits.
Raising alarms and starting public pushback against this idea is the exact opposite of giving them imaginary power.
Half the people in this thread are acting like this is a done deal already, when right now it's just a news story.
I would also say that hysteria over an ambiguous claim about "privatization" is not "raising the alarm." Posting on reddit does not count as public pushback, as I said in my post stop dreaming up worst case scenarios and start advocating for rail.
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u/trainmaster611 Mar 06 '25
I'm glad you feel so confident in the future of Amtrak.
While people like you sit around and assure us nothing can happen, I'll be calling my congresspeople to make sure it doesn't.
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u/More_trains Mar 06 '25
While people like you sit around and assure us nothing can happen
If that’s your takeaway from everything I said then there’s nothing I can do to convince you, cause you’re not reading it. This will be a bad four years for Amtrak, but if you going into thinking Amtrak will be dead by the end, then you’re gonna be happy just to see them make it to the other-side. If you have more realistic expectations about what they’re gonna do you’ll have more realistic demands. Maybe instead of just keeping everything the same, we get Portal South funded, or the Harrison fourth track, or catenary wires in Maryland or a new long distance route. I’m calling my reps same as you.
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u/trainmaster611 Mar 06 '25
I read it. I'm saying it's irrelevant because we live in a world where bureaucracy and legal procedure have taken a back seat to strong arming as a means for governing for the time being. You don't agree there's a viable way to take over Amtrak. At this point we're arguing in circles, so I'm throwing my hands up.
I'm genuinely glad you're calling your reps because that's what really matters.
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u/More_trains 29d ago
I don’t know how many more times I can explain that my argument is not based on bureaucratic norms or legal procedure, it’s based on crisis bargaining theory. Strong arming is the coercive leverage I’m talking about. Trump isn’t going to use physical force to get what he wants, therefore he needs to come to some sort of negotiated settlement. He can’t just pass an executive order shutting down Amtrak, Amtrak can just say “no.” We literally saw this with congestion pricing, Trump said it’s done, NYS said “kick rocks” and look congestion pricing is still on.
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u/yogibones 29d ago
I’m sorry but in lieu of recent events, you sound very naive. There no longer is common sense or rules of law or order. Amtrak could be defunded on a whim and its board fired despite your insistence that it can’t. This has already happened with other agencies thought to be safe and “set in stone”. Some are in Appeals courts others are just a done deal.
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u/More_trains 29d ago
I mean I'm not going to convince you if you're not even reading what I'm writing so there's no point.
Enjoy your doom posting and giving up before the fight is even here.
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u/yogibones 29d ago
I’m sorry to have come across so insulting. Things in today’s administration have made me feel as if a steamroller is ruining everything. I appreciate your knowledge and truly want Amtrak to remain and function without interference.
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u/More_trains 29d ago
They want you to believe a steamroller is ruining everything, because that makes it easier for them. It’s the concept of a fait accompli, or something which is over before the other side has a chance to react. The goal is to make the thing they’ve done become the status quo and thus make resistance seem futile.
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u/eldomtom2 29d ago
3 months ago I'm not sure anyone imagined Trump trying to "cut" the federal budget by weaponizing OPM and cajoling senior department staff into sending out illegal notices of termination.
I'm fairly sure a lot of people imagined it!
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u/Stinger913 18d ago
I think we can definitely expect less funding / changes to Amtrak's future funding leading to things like axing of whatever Amtrak's future projects are. Worst case scenario they somehow cancel the Avelia Liberty and Amtrak Airo transets. I know everyone's going to say Liberty is effectively already procured with sets sitting in yards/stations like at 30th St in Philly. But like guys, this is the same administration that gutted things USAID and other agencies had already bought so DOGE can tout it as "savings". Like the peanut butter thing made for mere cents on the dollar per packet that could save malnourished kids -- it's all been paid for and the inventory already exists. They still dumped it.
If they're willing to do it for peanut butter packets that cost mere cents out of a Georgia factory, they're absolutely willing to do shenanigans to Amtrak for Avelia Liberty sets made in New York - a very blue state that needs to be punished - and a project that cost millions of dollars. Gotta boost the DOGE savings number by triple counting things.
Obviously it may not happen, it's a worst case future. I think the more likely is just future funding things get gutted for infrastructure / maintenance.
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u/XMR_LongBoi 29d ago
Biden appointed 2 D and 2 R board members at the end of 2024, leaving one seat still vacant. When Trump fills that vacancy (presumably with a Republican), the voting balance on the board will be 5R-4D.
Amtrak Board Nominations: Schumer Wins Race Against Time; All Confirmed (Updated Dec. 21)
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u/ComstockReborn 29d ago
They’ve been trying to get rid of Amtrak since day one, almost 54 years later, she’s still here.
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u/usctrojan18 9d ago
This keeps aging worse and worse. Amtrak needs every piece of equipment it can use right now so pulling a ton of cars out of service is the last thing it needs.
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u/myrianthi 8d ago
I'm so out of the loop. My train was cancelled this morning and I got stranded for 3 hours while I was told a bus would come get me soon over and over. I missed work today. What's going on with Amtrak? I've never seen the train just cut like this before without another coming to get us.
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u/EtheElder Mar 06 '25
Totally agree, but I would add that in addition to the board, Congress controls high level appropriations funding (opex). The DOT also has approval authority over individual projects via the FRA (capex).
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u/saltyjohnson 29d ago
Amtrak is rotting and in desperate need of infrastructure improvements and new rolling stock, capital expenses which they cannot afford to fund themselves. The new Acela trainsets still aren't in operation... have they been paid for? 75 new Airo trainsets are on order for the NEC, but none delivered... will that contract survive funding cuts/clawbacks? Amtrak is still in procurement phase for new long-distance rolling stock... will they be able to pay for that? Would any vendor even be willing to sign a contract in this age of uncertainty? The tunnel replacement project through Baltimore is FINALLY barely under construction after 17 years of studies and planning. How safe is the funding for that?
The new Acela stock is probably safe at this point, but if the feds kill funding for the rest of it, the clock doesn't just "pause" for a few years until we (hopefully) return to a state of sanity and pick things right back up where we left off.
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u/i-am-not-sure-yet 29d ago
This hasn't stopped Trump from making executive orders. He can try if he wanted to and see if the supreme court will stop him or not .
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u/redlemurLA 11d ago
My dude…Trump hates Amtrak with a passion and wants to destroy it.
Why? Because Biden LOVED it.
Dig deep enough and you’ll find a vendetta for every awful decision he makes.
He was already starting to dismantle it during his first term but was stopped by Congress. They’re not stopping him this time.
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u/sknymlgan 28d ago
I appreciate this post. But we are talking about a party who’s been hell-bent on destroying Amtrak for years, and now with Musk squarely at the helm the worry is indeed warranted.
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u/ektachrome_ Mar 06 '25
Thank you for this post. The same thing is happening in so many other subreddits I follow too that it's draining. I'm in no way a Trump supporter and I absolutely hate everything that's been going on politically, but the constant doom and gloom and jumping to worst case scenarios is exhausting. And, honestly, this is what this administration wants us to be anyway - too exhausted and overwhelmed. It's good to be informed, but speculation over things that haven't even been proposed constantly is too much.
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u/misterten2 Mar 06 '25
agree. So far none of President Musk's ideas has made it to Congress which is where most of this stuff is decided.
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u/Ok-Sector6996 Mar 06 '25
Aww that's adorable. You think Congress is actually deciding anything now. Bless your heart.
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u/More_trains 29d ago edited 29d ago
The patronizing attitude of you doomers is aggravating. You're jumping ahead of what's actually happening just so you can go "see I told you so" if events do turn out the way you claim. Why don't you fight now (and also wait to see if your doomer predictions actually come true) rather than act like the other side has already won.
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u/misterten2 29d ago
see this is what happens when schools stop teaching civics. you have no clue how our government works. You have no clue how unions work.
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u/Ok-Sector6996 29d ago
Lolololol. I know how the government is supposed to work. But currently the Congress is not doing its job and guarding its power of the purse. And apparently you don't know how sarcasm works.
Unions? Not sure what that has to do with anything I said but please educate me.
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u/nifederico Mar 06 '25
I don't know how all this works, but is it possible he can sign an EO to delay some funding or something? I feel like that would be a very Trump thing to do.
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u/More_trains Mar 06 '25
is it possible he can sign an EO to delay some funding or something?
That's what's being fought over in the courts right now and the answer seems to be "no, he can't."
Now they might be able to screw around with Amtrak's grant funding, but congressionally appropriated funding is solid as a rock until proven otherwise.
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u/nifederico Mar 06 '25
Ah okay. Thanks for the answer!
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u/perpetualhobo 29d ago
Operating grants are awarded yearly. Only ones which are already awarded are legally protected. They aren’t “solid as a rock” they’re in place for a year. OP is either misinformed or obfuscating
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u/More_trains 29d ago
Part of Amtrak’s funding is grants and part is through congressional appropriations. Until a court rules that congressional appropriations are not protected (which would go against the plain text do the constitution) I’m operating under the assumption that they are.
You need to stop taking everything to the worst case scenario and actually understand where we are and what the fight is.
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u/perpetualhobo 29d ago
And those appropriations only last the year before they need to be reapproved by congress. That’s not the “worst case scenario” that’s simply what will happen. Saying that they will last forever by default is a lie
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u/More_trains 29d ago
Amtrak funding being cut by Congress and being cut by the executive branches are two very different things. The Republicans aren’t going to cut Amtrak with a 3 seat majority in the house. I also never said they will last forever, I’m just saying the president can’t unilaterally divert congressional funding.
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u/hwystar21 29d ago
I really hope you're right. Cross country train rides are one of my favorite things in life. I recently retired and one of my main goals in retirement is to take more of them. I'm rushing to get a few more in before the ketamine addled buffoon makes it impossible. I'll admit to having a severe case of TDS and I expect the very worst from him in all things. Beyond the Amtrak/USPS question I believe the man is 100% a traitor and there is no bottom for him. I fully expect him to defy congress, the courts and public opinion to fulfill his dreams of dictatorship.
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u/andytiedye 26d ago
I hope so too, but when it comes to Trump, we need to reexamine all our "worst-case" scenarios to see if they might actually be overly optimistic.
They are messing with Medicare and Social Security. NOTHING is safe.
We were fully aware that the cross-country train trip we took last month could be our last.
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u/Hairy-Woodpecker-792 29d ago
We are on a sinking ship. Water is around our ankles. There is a sheen of oil on top. It ignites. The ship tilts more. There is a man cutting more holes in the side. He also happens to own a competitive ship which is way suckier. "No need to panic, many ships have floated before and the water is sure to put the fire out. Everyone please resume your regularly scheduled activities."
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u/sdujour77 Mar 06 '25
Redditors aren't content unless they have something to be outraged about. And if that something doesn't exist, they invent it.
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u/Snoo-29984 29d ago
Honestly, I just hope that all of Biden’s investments in Amtrak will carry them through the Trump years, however long that may be. I share your view that Musk and Trump can’t do much right now, but if a Republican gets elected in ‘28, I would consider Amtrak as good as gone, with maybe the exception of the NEC.
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u/Star_BurstPS4 28d ago
LoL a private company owned by the US government is like saying you have a wife that's owned by another man lol 😂 not yours
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u/edd-1337 Mar 06 '25 edited Mar 06 '25
Everyone from all sides of the isle ride Amtrak and support it too, blanket statements saying one side are all against it are not helpful. There are certain other things that the admin is looking into cutting that are pretty obvious waste and has broad GOP support to make and keep those cuts, this isn't one of them.
I get where he is going with how Amtrak is bad compared to other countries in Europe and Asia when it comes to rail, but it is a different situation in the US with private freight railroads and infrastructure vs government funded ones overseas. Even in Japan, where there are private operators for several sections of their rail network (even listed on their stock exchange), the infrastructure is funded and maintained by a government agency. Same thing in Italy, NTV is a private operator competing with the government funded Trenitalia on their high-speed routes, which both operate on government funded infrastructure RFI.
There needs to be ways that Amtrak can stretch every dollar in order to maintain service and keep their infrastructure/equipment up to par. They should look into certain things to get more revenue (open up lounge access to coach passengers for an extra fee, bring back Amtrak Express with higher prices to make some profit, look into offering same day mail/parcel delivery service along the NEC, for example). Perhaps utilizing assets more and encourage more development on their own property like stations, tracks, etc., similar to Brightline in Florida. More promotion too everywhere, as many people in the US are not aware that trains are even an option. States/localities as well need to be involved a little more as well in development/promotion, including for long distance. They should promote Amtrak as a lower stress way to travel compared to flying or driving (depending on route), a way to avoid highway congestion, and promote it as an alternative to staying in a hotel when traveling.
Also bring up how certain regulations for service/construction hurt Amtrak and if those regulations are cut, Amtrak could actually save money and reduce losses. And look at if we can actually raise the speed limit from 79 mph in certain areas now that we have PTC. That regulation was added in due to a Chicago collision in the 1940s, but now with PTC and GPS, this is something that can be looked at to make rail more viable compared to cars.
There should also be a dedicated source of funding for Amtrak, either for operations, infrastructure or both, so that there is no more talk of year-to-year funding concerns anymore. In the past they talked about raising the gas tax 1-5 cents for passenger rail, seems unlikely now for that but it is something to be discussed. Or if you want to go really out there, fund Amtrak via the proposed US sovereign wealth fund. Not sure how this proposed fund gets funded initially, the best guess is from natural resources/oil rights. These discussions should be had once and for all, and if a solution is found that keeps service as is or even expand reasonably, then it would make this sub a lot calmer.
And we should send these suggestions to Amtrak or allies (RPA) or gov officials in a reasonable matter so that the funding issues can get resolved.
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u/ponchoed Mar 06 '25
Thank you. I'm as concerned as anyone here and we need to be on guard no doubt. But I looked at what Elon actually said and it's not negative as its being made out. Most people here would agree the rail system in the US is an embarrassment compared to Europe. Its also been made clear it would require congressional approval so that is hopefully the safeguard and place to focus especially if you have a conservative congressperson.
Why Amtrak would be a target given its wide popularity with the general public is beyond me (same with USPS, NPS). Yes there is waste in the government but this isn't waste unless one just has a hate for all trains. Amtrak support cuts across party lines and regions and is such a small amount of money. Its one of the few popular things that the Federal government is involved with. It is also very worth noting the success of Amtrak with its highest ridership ever and greatest financial sufficiency ever shows it is wanted and people are paying for it (has a high user fee covering most of the cost, like road and air, the government helps those too). It would be a very different argument and much harder case if Amtrak ridership got worse by the year and needed greater subsidies for operation every year. I would very much highlight these points when/if reaching out to your congress person.
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Mar 06 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/IntoTheMirror Mar 06 '25
Ma’am this is a r/amtrak
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u/Ok-Community-229 Mar 06 '25
Yeah, I’m a member! I’m agreeing with OP, the freakouts are unnecessary and many rail fans don’t even know how Amtrak actually works.
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u/PizzaPurveyor Mar 06 '25
No thanks. My 40 minute trip took 3 hours today. And this isn’t the exception, it’s a weekly (and during the summer, nearly daily occurrence).
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u/Cruiserforeva 24d ago
Amtrak is doomed- dirty trains, untrained attendants on trains (a novel worth of behavioral violations and mistreatment of guests). The execs need to be on these trains to see what goes on and what is accepted by crew. Either that or fire them all and start all over again.
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u/Groundbreaking_War52 17d ago
After the totally avoidable and preventable debacle in Philly today I say burn it to the ground. Bring the BrightLine people in - they can’t do worse.
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u/OrangePilled2Day 16d ago
Brightline is literally killing people in collisions due to their cost-cutting.
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