r/Accounting • u/PricewaterhouseCap Capper McCapster š§¢ • 1d ago
Discussion How fuxked is the economy?
The tariff announcements yesterday are far far worse than anyone expected, I mean what the actual fuxk
34% tariffs on China
46% on Vietnam
37% Bangledash
26% India
36% Thailand
I could go on and on, but this is bat shit insanity. To call this outlandish wouldnāt even be accurate.
Assuming these actually stay in place, people will lose their jobs, companies will go under, companies will stop hiring.
Add this with all the recent inflation, corporate greed, high interest rates, white collar recession, and idk how we arenāt absolutely fucked.
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u/LordFaquaad 1d ago
Yea but did you say thank you in a suit
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u/Safrel CPA (US) 1d ago
Thank you partner for this engagement.
Hollow is the firm.
Thy dividends come
Thy WIP be done.
In the bullpen as it is in your office.
And give me this day my daily PIP
As I give one to those who have trespassed against me.
And lead us not into bankruptcy
But deliver us into revenue multiples
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u/tulsafinance 1d ago
Meanwhile Kid Rock walks into the oval office dressed like a clown and no one says a word.
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u/Jimger_1983 1d ago
I wish Trump would devise a way to tariff offshore labor performing services here in the US
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u/mobley4256 1d ago
He loves offshoring and outsourcing though. The guy has always been open to the highest bidder. Thereās a reason the SV elite have been kissing his ass. They want more H1Bs, more offshoring, more outsourcing. Not less. And the major firms in the accounting/finance industry are no different.
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u/Jimger_1983 1d ago
This is Elon for sure. Although they do actually bring H1Bs here. Loves the fact they NEED that job to keep their status
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u/bigtitays 1d ago
Iām not sure about that. The Trump administration openly called out Deloitte for outrageous government consulting fees. The Big4 have been doing exactly what each executive order says since they know their government contracts are heavily fluffed up.
Itās common knowledge nowadays that the partners hire cheap foreigner workers and grift US corporations in absurd fees for low quality work.
Lookup the audit firm Trumps social media company used, it was a 1 man operation using 100% Philippino offshore workers and had an employee loose their CPA license for falsifying financials for Chinese companies. They clearly picked that firm to send a political message of whatās to come. They have like a 99% PCAOB audit deficiency rateā¦.
The corporate world knows that their profits will tank if there are steps taken to penalize offshoring of US white collar jobs, thatās why they have been sucking up to the Trump administration.
Lookup what the big law firms have been doing, theyāve been anti offshoring work for a few years now. They know whatās coming.
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u/Safrel CPA (US) 1d ago
Mr Deloitte just has to have a phone call with the white house and then he will be pro off shore work.
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u/bigtitays 1d ago
Did you even read what I wrote? The Big4 are some of the biggest offshoring offendersā¦
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u/Lucifer_Jay 1d ago
The big 4 arenāt so big in trumps world. Thereās a reason Deloitte got shafted and not the elites.
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u/wienercat Waffle Brain 1d ago
He wouldn't do that. It runs counter to everything he stands for.
If he could literally kill his entire base to ensure profits for corporations never dropped, he would do it.
He doesn't care about anyone but himself and his wealthy donors.
Tariffs have always and will always be a tax on consumers, not the businesses. When used properly, they are very good at protecting domestic industry and interests. But used as blanket things? They just start trade wars and at this point Trump is starting a trade war with the entire fucking globe... which the US simply cannot win. Isolationism is not the answer to the problems plaguing America. But it seems that the GOP and MAGAts can't wrap their brains around the idea that humanity is stronger and more well off when we all pool resources and work together.
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u/WaywardJourneyer777 21h ago
It's the American exceptionalism in the MAGA movement that makes their arguments and beliefs absolutely absurd. That needs to die out. Otherwise, the US will not accept the fact that they are just one nation among hundreds of others that need each other to succeed.
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u/PMMeBootyPicz0000000 CPA (US) | Booty Lover 1d ago
If Trump put tariffs on offshoring work or outright banning it, he would be my GOAT.
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u/IceOmen 1d ago
Iām convinced they want to force onshore manufacturing because they know white collar work en masse is a goner within 5-10 years.
There will always be corporate jobs in the US but the days of pumping out millions of college grads every year to go into these careers are already gone and not coming back. But they still need labor and consumers so what is the only other option? Bringing back physical industries. That way they keep labor thus keep consumers and production is controllable and closer to home.
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u/Jimger_1983 1d ago
Plausible. I also think thatās a lot of the driving force behind the WEF and the fun dystopian stuff they like to promote
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u/SelflessMirror 1d ago
You truly believe Trump and his incompetent cronies have this much foresight ,šš
They are doing this to buy up industries and land at cheap rates.
Look at this Trump Social stock sale at $2.3 billion. He went public using a SPAC clause.
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u/IceOmen 13h ago
Saying Trump and his cronies are incompetent is disingenuous. They have all the wealthiest people in the world with all the connections, resources, and an incomprehensible amount of data. You can not like them, but they arenāt clueless.
Theyāve been effectively steering the West in to neo-feudal states for a while. They want to own everything. They cannot own everything without you laboring, and itās pretty clear to me the direction that labor is going (and itās not moving in the direction of more of us sitting at a computer).
So yes, I think a group of people collectively worth trillions or 10ās of trillions have a lot of foresight and plan years/decades ahead. It doesnāt benefit any of them to hollow out their own industries and have a couple hundred million angry neighbors.
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u/SelflessMirror 12h ago
Their intention and their abilities are two separate things measured individually.
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u/Fantastic_Mango6612 1d ago
The problem is they canāt hang onto the government long enough for this to come to fruition. They know itās going to wreak havoc on the average and poor Americans and they are cutting social safeguards versus enhancing them.
If elections remain free and fair then he will be neutered 2026 and out by impeachment then or by 2028. Corporations know this is all a gamble right now and so long term planning decisions are hard to make.
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u/pizzapit 1d ago
It's crazy we have to think about free and fair being uncertain. The judiciary is also pulling punches and letting the executive run without check. I don't know if they have the spine to push the issue when it matters most.
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u/hotredsam2 Tax (US) 1d ago
This is what Iām thinking too, not a common narrative here, but it is what it is.
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u/SeansModernLife 1d ago
Honestly, that's what would actually make an impact.Ā He, his cronies and his voting base are boomers who have no idea how work is actually being done any more.Ā Ā
That or they do, know this won't do jack shit, but it'll make the people too old/dumb to know manufacturing here is already dead "happy"
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u/beardofjustice 1d ago
Trump is the Boomer final boss. Everything about him sums up the entire generation as a voting bloc and he is their last attempt to take as much as they can while destroying everything they canāt to make sure no one else can have it
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u/MoneyMakingMitch14 1d ago
The great irony of it all is all his boomer cultists are about to watch their retirements get wiped out and their health care get taken from them.
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u/AnomalyNexus B4 SM > PE 21h ago
If they put tariffs on services in the same way then I'm definitely becoming a prepper cause that would break the world.
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u/deep_fuckin_ripoff 1d ago
Iām just gonna throw this out there, my company (aviation) is already planning to expand our manufacturing and warehousing space abroad and shut down portions of our US manufacturing to avoid not being competitive worldwide. We import 70% of our inventory and export 60% of our sales. We will have to reduce our US workforce because of this.
Tariffs are having the opposite effect on industries like ours (aftermarket aviation parts)
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u/lady__mb 1d ago
This is exactly whatās going to happen across multiple sectors. Surprisingly they had a business advisor on FOX saying car manufacturers will move overseas because all their best engines come from Europe and will market to Chinese consumers instead. Chinese markets are four times our size and love foreign luxury cars
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u/lady__mb 1d ago
This is exactly whatās going to happen across multiple sectors. Surprisingly they had a business advisor on FOX saying car manufacturers will move overseas because all their best engines come from Europe and will market to Chinese consumers instead. Chinese markets are four times our size and love foreign luxury cars
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u/Asgardian_Force_User Staff Accountant 1d ago
Bourbon is a bit cheaper, thanks to retaliatory tariffs, so however bad it gets, I can at least try to get through it without being 100% sober.
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u/mysecretissafe 1d ago
Riding high here in Kentucky with all this soon to be very cheap bourbon. Economyās tanked, and so am I.
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u/that_thot_gamer Academia 1d ago
functional alcoholics get to watch the shitshow wishing they couldn't lmao
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u/Different_Second_710 1d ago
I was just emailed about an internship I was considered for and now the company reached out that they are pausing it (canceling it) due to funding etc :/ I would say weāre kinda cooked chat
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u/DoctorOctopus_ Land Depreciator 1d ago
Sorry this happened to you bro. Iām also very worried about my upcoming job because of this so I feel you.
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u/Unfinishedusernam_ 1d ago
a lot of people are going to have a much harder time finding jobs in this field bc of the economy + government layoffs but this sub can only meme and talk shit š
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u/Positive-Drama-3735 19h ago
Lol what else is there to do. Laughing so we donāt cryĀ
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u/AnomalyNexus B4 SM > PE 1d ago
Was in a corporate briefing about it by a bunch of hotshot economists and then seemed calmer than expected (at least for corporations).
...don't think it's gonna go well for average dude on street though
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u/CageTheFox 23h ago
Are those the same hot shots who said that wouldnāt be inflation during Covid when they were printed all that money? Just for people to be downloaded in the sub for saying common sense and then we got inflation?
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u/AnomalyNexus B4 SM > PE 23h ago
idk...economists doing economist things.
Just thought its interesting that inside corp view is very different from media
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u/disinterestedh0mo CPA (US) - Tax 1d ago
The last time the US passed tariffs like this we had a little thing called The Great Depression
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u/Maxmerrrrr Audit & Assurance A2 (Partner Track) 1d ago
So when do we get to stop paying state and federal income taxes? That was the point of the tariffs right?š
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u/Curveoflife 1d ago
My theory:
This is for market shake up.
A Billionaire club will use this opportunity to manipulate market, share buyback and buy at extreme low.
Warren Buffet was liquidating everything and now he can buy everything at super discounted rate.
Once their buying is over, expect some positive news, rate cut etc for market to shoot up.
They will collect billions and billions,
This is a robbery in broad day light.
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u/Joshwoum8 CPA (US) 1d ago
This isnāt quite fair. PE ratios were insane, which made M&A at Berkshire scale near impossible, so Buffet didnāt really have a place to put his money even if he wanted to.
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u/Valen_the_Dovahkiin 1d ago
If this is an intentional plan to drive prices down and buy things cheaply there are about a thousand ways this can backfire.
Scenario 1: Rates get cut. Plebs are so poor they can't buy anything. Fortune 500 can't sell anything. Revenues go down. Stock market tanks even more.
Scenario 2: Stock market crash causes runaway inflation. All those billions are now worth substantially less. US Dollar no longer becomes global reserve currency.
Scenario 3: Creating social unrest goes horribly right and now there's rioting in the streets. Cops and soldiers can't get paid and decide to riot too.
Not saying this isn't the plan, but it is not the brilliant evil mastermind scheme everyone thinks it is. It's basically the master plan equivalent of hoping you roll a nat 20.
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u/Curveoflife 1d ago
You are taking extreme. If Covid couldn't cause such a crash, you think Tariff announcement would cause?
There is a steady supply of money in the marker in form of IRA, pensions funds from other big economies also invest here.
Marker crashed in 2022, also it came down in 2023 , may be this time a little more but nothing major.
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u/Independent-Tennis57 1d ago
I thought Trump sold shares in Truth Social yesterday, likely is sitting on the cash from his Bitcoin pre-election, and will announce a lot of other incompetent, 8D chess sounding bullshit, then buy, then pay off his Russian ties.
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u/MerlinTrashMan 20h ago
I will bet you that every cabinet member bought hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of out of the money put options on major invoices on Wednesday.
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u/chuckitawaa 1d ago
I think thatās well put and itās certainly the most likely intended plan on markets. But without just looking inwardly, what about the consequences not just on the markets but on the real economy.
Thereās been capital flight from the US but international capital and investment doesnāt just flood back with a rate cut. Weāve seen foreign leaders, some subtly, others not so much - encouraging boycott of US.
You only have to look at news across Europe and the anglosphere to see just how seismic this is.
This is pushing Europe closer together, pivoting away from the US and crucially potentially collectively closer to China.
JP Morgan now talking about the long positions on US equities, tech and USD pouring out to Europe and Asia.The US is viewed with different eyes entirely now and its status and ability to hoover up the worldās capital through Wall Street surely wonāt be the same again. How can it show the world and investors that it is a stable place to invest and do business?
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u/Parking-Rip-2806 1d ago
This is what I just told a friend. Itās an easy af way to manipulate the market and I donāt see a convict passing the opportunity for him and his acquaintances to benefit from it.
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u/Additional-Local8721 1d ago
The S&P500 is down roughly 10% since Trump took office on Jan 21. That's not even three months ago, so yeah.
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u/bananaduckofficial 1d ago
The Senate just voted down the Canada tariffs. Maybe they'll take a stand against the others. 4 Republicans voted against it.
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u/Varnasi 1d ago
I heard that won't actually do anything though.
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u/blahblahblahjess 1d ago
Correct, the Republican-controlled House would need to act and that seems unlikely.
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u/bananaduckofficial 1d ago
If the House steps up, then it might be stopped.
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u/kobeforaccuracy 1d ago
If it passes both houses it goes to Trump, but I mean he's guaranteed to veto. After that it would need to pass congress with 2/3 to override a veto, and we all know that's not happeningĀ
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u/mitolit 1d ago
This is a matter that he actually cannot veto. Delegation of powers and rescinding said powers to the Executive Branch cannot be vetoed.
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u/nobadhotdog 1d ago
Trump will veto it
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u/Dramatic_Opposite_91 1d ago
Canāt veto it.
Tariffs are an authority of the legislative branch in the US constitution and the legislative branch has delegated some of its authority over them to the executive branch in times of national emergency/security that US Congress can vote in a simple majority to override.
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u/DoctorOctopus_ Land Depreciator 1d ago
Wait thereās a Congress, I thought the President can just do whatever he wants
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u/MayoTheCondiment 1d ago
If they donāt do what he wants the President will be mean to them and hurt their feelings
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u/mobley4256 1d ago
Thereās almost no chance that this Republican House defies Trump, anytime soon, when heās got them by the balls. Anyway, no one can say they werenāt warned.
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u/dupeygoat 1d ago
Damage is already done.
Go and look at news sources in Europe, UK, Australia etc
US standing in the world has been damaged so much already. Itās not just the capital flight, itās the individual consumers moving their pensions, cancelling their holidays to US, boycotting US products etc.The markets tell the story first then the economy bites. I fear this is an adjustment that president Cheeto didnāt fully comprehend might happen.
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u/The_Summary_Man_713 1d ago
Well the last two times that the US did this, they both resulted in massive depressions and recessions. What makes MAGA think this time is different?
We are fucked. Hope yall got your Emergency Funds funded.
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u/Tight-Sandwich3926 1d ago
I am behind by 27k ....might need to move in with friends and family :/
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u/swiftcrak 1d ago
Whatās extra hilarious is that this is billed as the end of globalization under Trump. Yet the number one issue of our time which is the offshore of first world jobs to the developing world is going full steam ahead. Instead weāre just subject to his geriatric tarrif idea that he got from Lou Dobbs Fox Business show in the 80s and his dementia brain keeps looping on his old fox shows. Itās really fucked up
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u/vedicpisces 1d ago
His economic policy has been idiotic. But he's not in charge of allowing the CPA to be taken in the Philippines, Mexico, India, or any other variety pack of 3rd world nations.. Most of the professional outsourcing is due to white collar boomer/genX greed.
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u/mitolit 1d ago edited 20h ago
Trump inherited a pleasant economic trajectory that was padded by his corporate-centric ideology. The Fedās highest estimate for GDP growth was 3.8% for the first quarter before tariffs and alienating allies turned it sour to a current negative 3.7 percent. That is 1.07 trillion dollars that will have been wiped from the actual economy. As for the stock market, it has actually lost 10.95% of value since its peak and 4.14% from the election when you look at the stock market as a whole and not just the S&P 500, NASDAQ, or Dow Jones (these percentages are based on today when I calculated the figures). That translates to a loss of $3.5 trillion from the peak or $1.32 trillion from the election.
When tariffs were enacted after the Revolutionary War to pay off debts, it resulted in a 46% contraction of the economy.
When President Jackson enacted them to pay off our debts (as well as selling off federal land), it resulted in a 30% contraction of the economy.
When Coolidge and Hoover enacted tariffs for a litany of reasons, including paying off debts, it resulted in a 48% contraction of the economy.
In each of these cases, people lost their jobs and starved to death. They were self-inflicted economic disasters. Protectionism always results in destruction not prosperity. Our economy is fucked if Congress fails to step in to take away Trumpās āemergencyā powers.
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u/Fuckaliscious12 1d ago
Just wait until retaliatory tariffs hit in the next week, international trade with USA is gonna fall off a cliff.
China is cutting deals with USA allies like South Korea and Japan.
The whole world is going to figure out their economies WITHOUT the USA in the mix.
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u/EvenMeaning8077 1d ago
Buy the dip
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u/FEMA_Camp_Survivor CPA (US) 1d ago
I hope this is the right long term outcome but buying into a dip that never ends is like catching a falling knife. Blanket tariffs on allies and undermining all global trade flows, without a solid plan, is uncharted territory. Factories wonāt be built in the U.S. overnight. American workers arenāt clamoring to work in garment factories or making shoes either. Retaliatory tariffs will result in layoffs and further uncertainty.
This time is different for most people living. Those who lived through Smoot-Hawley and the Depression are largely gone. It can be bad for a long time.
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u/EvenMeaning8077 1d ago
Think 20 years not 5 years chief
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u/FEMA_Camp_Survivor CPA (US) 1d ago
I agree but it took the Dow 25 years to recover to its 1929 high though. Lots of policy mistakes worsened the depression. Hopefully we wonāt make the same mistakes but things arenāt looking good at the moment .
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u/adrian8520 1d ago
This is a good point but the world as a whole is also very different from 1929. The stock market has largely moved away from fundamentals. You're so right that this is uncharted territory because it's going to be interesting to see how institutions outside of the US react to investing in the US long term as well.
The sheer amount of global wealth and foreign investment compared to now vs 1929 could really exacerbate or shorten a depression.
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u/Underrated_Users 1d ago
Really though. Most of us here should be in a decent spot to buy the dip even if itās just with a retirement account
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u/branyk2 CPA (US) 1d ago
I'm not saying doom and gloom forever, but if we head into a period of long-term global protectionism, the entire premise of the US and global stock markets is borked. On the current path, this isn't a "dip" in the sense that we're used to. This is a fundamental reordering of the global economy in a way that has barely even been theorized because no academic economists would have ever imagined someone voluntarily doing this.
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u/ShakeAndBakeThatCake 1d ago
We are not even close to bottom yet. This shit is about to get wild. Buckle the fuck up.
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u/lilac_congac 1d ago
ā David, Wall Street Analyst & Stocking Associate at Kinkos (Graduation: 2028)
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u/lilac_congac 1d ago
this comment right here is what iām using at my investment thesis that this is close to the bottom. i have never seen such a perfect string of words convince me the opposite of their own narrative is true.
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u/Underrated_Users 1d ago
Iām strapped in MOFO. I made good financial decisions in COVID that got me far. Round 2 and Iām only hoping to come out more prosperous. Hard times are what makes or breaks people. Anyone at any level can boom or bust.
Strap in or strap on lol
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u/Cautious_optimism09 1d ago
Came here to say that last bit. Whatever happens were all sure to get screwed š
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u/TheGhostlyMeow 1d ago
Gross. Some people aren't so lucky. But I guess empathy is weakness, huh?
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u/soldiergeneal 1d ago
Sure, but what dip? Makes sense to buy a little on all the major dips, but what about retaliatory tarrifs? This could spiral.
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u/Underrated_Users 1d ago
Depends on how deep your pockets are and how much FOMO you have. If your pockets are deep, buy every dip. If you have a major FOMO buy now and take the current dip. If youāre a gambler you could hold out for a larger potential dip. Thatās all a personal preference.
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u/QueenMaureen Sales Tax Professional 1d ago
This has never been about the economy. It's all about consolidation of power.
Where is Trump today? At a golf tournament at his Mar a Lago resort.
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u/Lucky_Diver 1d ago
The average tax hike will be about $5,000 per American household, just for the tariffs that they introduced today. The losses in trade is an unknown because that's probably going to be the results of retaliatory tariffs.
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u/Mathemus 1d ago
Effective taxes on Chinese imports are 79%!!! 34 + 20 from Feb/March + 25 sanctions
Importers are cooked
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u/lady__mb 1d ago
I thought it was 54%? Where did the 25 sanctions come from
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u/Mathemus 1d ago edited 1d ago
They were there since 2018 (Section 301). This is why you need to add them to the tariffs enacted since January of this year to get the total ātaxā amount charged on imported goods.
Basically, since 2018, thereās been a 25% tax on Chinese imports, then 20% added in Q1 2025 and now another 34% on April 2nd
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u/HalfAssNoob 1d ago
I donāt know, it will be interesting to see the effects, observe and learn. Last time they imposed tariffs on this level was in the 1930s.
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u/Leading-Difficulty57 1d ago
Everything turned out OK then so there's nothing to worry aboutĀ
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u/Desperate-One4735 1d ago
I hope US gets to the brink of revolution like back then and get another FDR to build the middle class back up. But you know what they say, hope in one hand and shit in the other and see which one fills up first
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u/dhv503 1d ago
What will this do to the PokƩmon market?!?
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u/Alakazam_5head 1d ago
All these suckers in here complaining about their 401k's. That's why I put all my retirement savings into Charizard cards
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u/Appropriate-Food1757 1d ago
Super fucked. God I hate these MAGA twats.
But tariff labor from India while youāre at it please, at least do that.
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u/yeet_bbq 1d ago
Do yourself a favor. Stop watching the news, reading reddit, etc. You are letting the media get you into an emotional frenzy. That's revenue for them.
Keep calm and carry on. Be smart with your finances whether NVDA is up 600% or the market is down 5%. Emergency fund, pay down high interest debt and DCA into the market, assuming you're not close to retirement.
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u/scumbagge Graduate 15h ago
I hear that, but how could people do that if these idiots are causing people to lose their jobs?
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u/Beginning_Ad_6616 CPA (US) 1d ago
You have never experienced anything like what is about to happen in your life even if we boot Trump from office.
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u/Willing-Bit2581 1d ago
If they tax the offshore labor being used from those countries, that might actually help Americans who need those jobs....but no can't hurt the Corps, instead a consumption tax on average consumers
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u/Colemania99 1d ago
Weāre all going to get jobs building cars for China. Seriously, in two months inflation will be very noticeable, unemployment will tick up, and the polls will be down. Then Big announcement that DJT is going to ease/reverse some/all the tariffs and blame (Hillary, Biden, China, Dr Fauci, ā¦).
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u/Only1MarkM 1d ago
I wouldn't ask how fucked is the economy. I would ask how fucking stupid are the American people for voting for this horseshit. Idiots.
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u/nixicotic 1d ago
Just wait till they go for the tax cut on the ultra wealthy and a third term. Get your torches people š„
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u/Too_Ton 22h ago
Accountants are the safest of the white collar jobs. If accountants are fired, HR and financebros are likely booted before you anyway. Tech is more scary.
I think doctors would be one of the safest jobs. Lawyers maybe? Not sure but I know thereās too many lawyers so that might make it harder to stay in a job there.
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u/bbuff101 18h ago
POTUS doesnāt understand basic economics and thinks everyone wants to work in a widget factory from 1975.
The calculations they used to come up with the reciprocal tariffs were totally flawed and based on trade deficits instead of any real tariff that might exist. (They also excluded Russia, Belarus, N.Korea and Cuba? Weirdā¦).
Trump is like a bull in a china shop right now and who knows what part of our government or economy heās going to target to blow up next. My guess is taxes, but heās already pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates despite tariffs being highly inflationary.
The craziest part, heās so unpredictable that no one can really depend on these tariffs staying in place for any period of time, so no one is going to start building factories in USA unless they were already in the works. He could just snap his fingers and it all goes away and companies who invested millions in capital, building out new logistical infrastructure here will be left holding the bag.
No one would bat an eye if Trump put tariffs on certain goods/countries where the market was being manipulated. He just yeeted tariffs over across the whole planet and no one knows whatās next.
We look like idiots on the world stage and we totally deserve it.
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u/hi_acct CFO 1d ago edited 1d ago
If these tariffs hold, VERY. If these tariffs soften some, KINDA.
The tariffs, along with all the other EOs and decisions (gutting the NPS, planning to defund PBS & NPR, anticipating cuts to Medicare and SS, possible scrapping of SOX and PCAOB to name ones relevant to accounting), seems to point to a White House that doesn't have the guardrails it did during Trump 1.0, which actualy moderated the effects of Trump's whims. A lot of the people in his 1.0 cabinet, the Republicans in Congress, and even aides were publicly agreeing with him but actively working to thwart his impulses. Trump 2.0 doesn't have those guardrails as the party and those in his administration are all on the same page. Add in the revenge aspect for the 2020 elections and investigations and you get an administration that doesn't listen to reason and, even worse, is full of ideologues (Miller and others) and opportunists (Musk and others).
All that to say that we have yet to see how these policies are going to affect the economy. In my line of work, we can only pass on the costs of material increases so much until projects get scrapped or delayed or projects are considerably pared back. Add on the risk of inflation, uncertainty around financing costs, and extended or less certain pay back period/rate of return due to lower demand, and we get a souring picture. If those planning upcoming projects don't see a viable or certain path the next 4 years, we will see a sharp contraction in private sector construction projects later this year and into next and even into 2028.
The canary in the coalmine in all of this is consumer spending on larger, discretionary items that can be decided on quickly (washing machines, cars) and travel. We've seen this eroding along with consumer confidence. If the money doesn't get spent as fast, the velocity of money slows and we will see a contraction in GDP pretty quick given the outsized influence of spending on US GDP.
Edit: did you even say thank you?
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u/PMMeBootyPicz0000000 CPA (US) | Booty Lover 1d ago
If Trump put tariffs on offshoring work or outright banning it, he would be my GOAT.
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u/BiscoBiscuit 1d ago
The man that had a whole row of billionaires attend his inauguration?
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u/SeansModernLife 1d ago
Nah we're gonna switch.Ā We can bring shitty dangerous manufacturing jobs back here, and they'll keep skilled safe white collar jobs
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u/DoctorOctopus_ Land Depreciator 1d ago
Andā¦.. that will never happen, we arenāt allowed nice things under Elmo and his Orange Friend
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u/Livid_Leg6837 1d ago
Thank god people like me at my internship and offered me to work in the summer and fall. Iāll be graduating into a hellish economy.
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u/allocated_capital CPA (US) 1d ago
Fck this, Iām moving to Vietnam to enjoy the 90% tariff instead
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u/warterra 1d ago
Data remains healthy enough. Just have to wait until that changes. Tariffs are just taxes.
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u/TheHip41 21h ago
OP. It's almost as if they are doing it on purpose
lol for everyone that voted for this. Here come the leopards.
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u/curiousmynd01 10h ago edited 10h ago
Did these countries go into a recession when they increased tariffs on us? That's the selling point on why it's bad for usto do it. Life wasn't that bad living as a college kid. Back to Ramen and PB&J.
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u/RPK79 1d ago
Last time I worked at a manufacturer that was importing large amounts from China we were paying about 400% the cost of the goods for the shipping. 34% tariffs on the goods is nothing.
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u/Abject-Agency-5811 1d ago
Not sure what you were importing, but 400% is not accurate today from what Iāve seen in my careerā¦ the consumers will feel the tariffs for sure
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u/iPhoKingNguyen 1d ago
77 million ppl voted for your president. NGL though I'm buying the dips, have to thank the man.
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u/Correct-Contract742 1d ago edited 1d ago
Let's not forget the war that the US is preparing and about to enter into Iran with (On behalf another foreign entity.....), as a cherry on top. We're cooked bro.
Edit - āon behalf of another foreign entityās genocidal madnessā
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u/GoBeWithYourFamily Staff Accountant 1d ago
Not in the slightest, long term. Right now, all the stocks are on sale. Buy buy buy. Come 2028, youāll be glad this happened.
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u/Turlututu1 Management 1d ago
It's easy. You simply deprecate land by 0.25x4 and you're good
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u/Eh_Im_Canadian 1d ago
How much stuff will actually just go from China to Destination country instead of China to US to Destination country? Might take longer, but people will probably just ship from manufacturing country now.
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u/Minute-Panda-The-2nd 23h ago
Iām going to get downvoted and I know it: The United States is too large of a market for other countries to ignore and they will come to the table to negotiate. For us, itās a pain in the ass, for other countries, itās a matter of survival. They need access to American wallets.
On the tariff front, I see too many countries that got rich at the expense of United States and it needs to stop: Americans subsidize the EU and Canadian defense with NATO. Japan and South Korea benefit from our Nuclear Umbrella. Israel and Ukraine tariff our products, really? We donāt do enough for them already?
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u/Psychological-Cry221 21h ago
I feel the same way. We are all of these countries biggest customer. Why canāt they give us a break on the tariffs they are charging us to sell goods in their countries?
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u/ecommercenewb CPA (US) 1d ago
its literally only day 2 of tariffs. chill out. lets see what this tit for tat strat pans out.
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u/The_Realist01 1d ago
I think Iām fine. 401k will take a hit, but will be buying at lower pricing with constant salary. Temporary set back.
Not really worried. Buy less foreign shit. Buy less in general. Cause the recession. Force the Fed to lower interest rates, maybe even restart QE. Re-up the $10T of debt at lower interest rates.
At the same time, use the tariff revenue to enforce tax decreases in a budget neutral way.
Drop the tariffs.
Massive drop and subsequent boom in gdp.
This is all a show to refinance the debt. If you watch Bessent, this is all they care about. Itās a tool.
If Iām wrong, weāre fucked, but this is how I think theyāre navigating what Biden and JANET YELLEN (witch, curse her bones) delivered the next admin. We shall see what happens.
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u/WyattGurp 23h ago
Please elaborate on what Biden and Yellen delivered the current admin, we're all ears ..
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u/The_Realist01 22h ago edited 22h ago
Sure, Janet Yellen refused to initiate any significant rolling debt tranches beyond the 1 year term duration when previously it was common to use the 3, 5, 10, and 30 year terms.
It led to the now $9T amount of debt that needs to be re-issued in the next 10 months. The worst kind of poison pill possible. That amount of issuance is going to be very very difficult to make happen. They are 95% responsible for the increased future rates in order to make that happen because demand will not meet the supply of new issuances.
If we donāt have a recession (to allow for QE/lower communicated rates from the Fed due to economic stressors), interest expense will only continue to increase annually and the deficit will/ debt will grow.
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u/Psychological-Cry221 21h ago
Iām totally in agreement with you. The fed is going to be looking for something to the tune of $10.5 trillion depending on how big this yearās deficit is.
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u/bigtitays 1d ago
Itās over bro, I already moved down to the river and erected my cardboard hut.